CWS vs SF prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.9 - CWS 3.5. CWS is favored with a 50.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
SF
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCWS
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWS W5SF
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.5% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
245
SF
135
Projected
SF 2.9 — CWS 3.5
Actual
SF 4 — CWS 9
Pick Results
Trevor McDonald OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.00u
Davis Martin OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+1.52u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF26%94 mph24% whiff
CH18%90 mph15% whiff
SL16%87 mph50% whiff
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SI56%94 mph13% whiff
SL30%87 mph44% whiff
CH13%84 mph47% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
54°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.944 Total: 0.966
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.91ERA
4.86FIP
8.64K/9
5.27BB/9
1.48WHIP
SF
3.38ERA
4.09FIP
7.83K/9
4.75BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.8% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-27.6% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 3.5
+17.2% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+16.1% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-8.8% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.5% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.7 runs
41.3% win
SF F5
1.5 runs
35.8% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
65.5%
YRFI
34.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
75%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
25%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SF8 injured
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Jung Hoo Lee RFDAY-TO-DAY
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=283)
SF home team at -112 shows neutral ML edge (-2.9%, 49.5% home prob vs 51% market), but UNDER 7.5 shows strong 16.1% edge (63.8% prob) — one of the highest-edge unders on slate. Oracle Park (0.88 park factor, -12% runs) + cold marine layer (54.1F, 12mph in, 93% humidity) + pitcher quality (Trevor McDonald B grade vs Davis Martin B grade, balanced) = extremely pitcher-favorable conditions. NRFI edge 4.6% (62.3% prob) confirms early dominance.
Key Factors
- Pitcher match balanced: Trevor McDonald (B grade, 0.606 score, 22.9% K-rate, 3.6% BB-rate) vs Davis Martin (B grade, 0.649 score, 27.4% K-rate, 4.7% BB-rate) — Davis Martin slightly better K-rate but both B-tier; neutral matchup
- UNDER 7.5 edge 16.1% (63.8% prob) is HIGHEST edge on slate for unders; falls into 15-20% bucket with 51.8% historical WR — PROFITABLE bucket
- Oracle Park (0.88 factor, -12% run suppression) is LOWEST-SCORING park in MLB (even lower than PETCO 0.9 or Petco-like suppression). This is the critical edge.
- Marine layer marine layer (54.1F, 12mph wind IN, 93% humidity) is BRUTAL for hitters — ball doesn't carry, temperature suppresses air density
- F5 UNDER 3.5 edge 17.2% (58.0% prob) confirms early-game suppression; pitchers will dominate first 5
Risk Factors
- 16.1% edge is HIGH (>15%), and calibration warns high-edge plays underperform. But this is specifically in 15-20% bucket, not the 20%+ catastrophic zone.
- Oracle marinelayer (famous cold/wind) might not be in effect if wind direction changes or temperature rises
- CWS offense decent; if they get early runs, under might be broken quickly
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUEDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 50.4%
-44.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.8 pts
Total
7.5
+16.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →