CWS vs SF prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.6 - CWS 4.8. CWS is favored with a 59.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
SF
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCWS
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,258 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
SF
135
Projected
SF 2.6 — CWS 4.8
Actual
SF 10 — CWS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Hudson L
CWS
FF63%92 mph26% whiff
ST24%81 mph21% whiff
SI10%90 mph27% whiff
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI47%95 mph7% whiff
CH18%86 mph33% whiff
SL14%88 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
64°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.940 Total: 0.963
14mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.80ERA
4.78FIP
8.72K/9
5.20BB/9
1.46WHIP
SF
3.32ERA
4.09FIP
7.86K/9
4.83BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-58.2% EV
-196
F5_ML HOME
-35.8% EV
-116
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+30.9% EV
+162
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-27.9% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
+26.4% EV
-108
ML HOME
-20.9% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.7 runs
58.5% win
SF F5
1.3 runs
23.9% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
60.2%
YRFI
39.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 17.7% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Drew Romo CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.306 | Barrel: 17.9% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Hudson
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SF8 injured
Jung Hoo Lee RF10-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE45.2% WR (n=165)
Away underdog CWS shows 13.8% ML edge (57.5% win prob) with -116 home odds heavily overestimating SF. Pitcher mismatch EXTREME: Adrian Houser (C grade, D stuff, 4.9 K/9) is dramatically overmatched by Bryan Hudson (B grade, B- stuff, 9.0 K/9). Oracle Park's -14 mph wind IN suppresses runs but helps pitcher-heavy matchup. Sharp money likely supporting this away underdog.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch EXTREME: Hudson (B, 9.0 K/9, elite strikeout rate) vs Houser (C, D-stuff, 4.9 K/9, 4.1 K/9 gap)
- Park factor -3.7% (Oracle 0.88) + 14mph wind IN = massive run suppression, hurts CHW's aggressive lineup
- Home odds -116 underestimate pitcher gap: Market likely pricing as neutral matchup when pitcher quality favors away by 4+ runs
- Weather temperature 64F mild, humidity 74%, wind -14 directly in = compressed fly balls, benefits strikeout pitcher
Risk Factors
- Away ML zone historically RED (45.2% WR) — away underdogs are structural losers. This game is exception due to pitcher gap.
- If Houser pitches better than 4.9 K/9 baseline (can happen any game), upset risk emerges
- Market may be correctly pricing that Houser is due for decent outing after recent bad stretch
PITCHER MISMATCH AWAYWEATHER SUPPRESSIONPARK FACTORAWAY UNDERDOG VALUELINEUP MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 59.6%
-58.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-58.2 pts
Total
8.5
+20.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →