CWS vs SF prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.6 - CWS 4.8. CWS is favored with a 59.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
SF
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCWS
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.3% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
SF
135
Projected
SF 2.6 — CWS 4.8
Actual
SF 10 — CWS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Hudson L
CWS
FF63%92 mph26% whiff
ST24%81 mph21% whiff
SI10%90 mph27% whiff
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI47%95 mph7% whiff
CH18%86 mph33% whiff
SL14%88 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
64°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.940 Total: 0.963
14mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.80ERA
4.78FIP
8.72K/9
5.20BB/9
1.46WHIP
SF
3.32ERA
4.09FIP
7.86K/9
4.83BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-58.2% EV
-196
F5_ML HOME
-35.8% EV
-116
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+30.9% EV
+162
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-27.9% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
+26.4% EV
-108
ML HOME
-20.9% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.7 runs
58.5% win
SF F5
1.3 runs
23.9% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
60.2%
YRFI
39.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 17.7% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Drew Romo CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.306 | Barrel: 17.9% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Hudson
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SF8 injured
Jung Hoo Lee RF10-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
Away underdog CWS shows 13.8% ML edge (57.5% win prob) with -116 home odds heavily overestimating SF. Pitcher mismatch EXTREME: Adrian Houser (C grade, D stuff, 4.9 K/9) is dramatically overmatched by Bryan Hudson (B grade, B- stuff, 9.0 K/9). Oracle Park's -14 mph wind IN suppresses runs but helps pitcher-heavy matchup. Sharp money likely supporting this away underdog.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch EXTREME: Hudson (B, 9.0 K/9, elite strikeout rate) vs Houser (C, D-stuff, 4.9 K/9, 4.1 K/9 gap)
- Park factor -3.7% (Oracle 0.88) + 14mph wind IN = massive run suppression, hurts CHW's aggressive lineup
- Home odds -116 underestimate pitcher gap: Market likely pricing as neutral matchup when pitcher quality favors away by 4+ runs
- Weather temperature 64F mild, humidity 74%, wind -14 directly in = compressed fly balls, benefits strikeout pitcher
Risk Factors
- Away ML zone historically RED (45.2% WR) — away underdogs are structural losers. This game is exception due to pitcher gap.
- If Houser pitches better than 4.9 K/9 baseline (can happen any game), upset risk emerges
- Market may be correctly pricing that Houser is due for decent outing after recent bad stretch
PITCHER MISMATCH AWAYWEATHER SUPPRESSIONPARK FACTORAWAY UNDERDOG VALUELINEUP MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 59.6%
-58.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-58.2 pts
Total
8.5
+20.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →