CWS vs SF prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.2 - CWS 4.6. CWS is favored with a 63.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SF
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CWS
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCWS
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.9% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
SF
135
Projected
SF 3.2 — CWS 4.6
Actual
SF 8 — CWS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Noah Schultz L
CWS
FF26%95 mph25% whiff
SI25%95 mph7% whiff
ST23%83 mph34% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF45%93 mph17% whiff
SL30%85 mph33% whiff
CH16%86 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
64°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.952 Total: 0.971
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
5.35ERA
5.26FIP
8.60K/9
5.36BB/9
1.48WHIP
SF
3.24ERA
4.00FIP
8.04K/9
4.76BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-51.6% EV
-204
F5_ML HOME
-26.6% EV
-122
ML HOME
-26.2% EV
-116
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-19.5% EV
-105
ML AWAY
+19.4% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
+18.1% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.7 runs
53.2% win
SF F5
1.8 runs
30.4% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.269 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.88x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.415 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.88x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Noah Schultz
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SF8 injured
Jung Hoo Lee RF10-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1RED ZONE44.5% WR (n=163)
CWS away shows explosive +19.4% edge (model 60.3% vs market 50.5%) — Noah Schultz (5.32 ERA) faces elite Robbie Ray (4.62 ERA), creating pitcher mismatch. Away is RED zone but edge is large enough to overcome drag. Market underpricing away value.
Key Factors
- Noah Schultz (CWS SP) Bayesian ERA: 5.32 (weak), 21.6% K-rate, C+ grade — below-average
- Robbie Ray (SF SP) Bayesian ERA: 4.62 (average-ish), 22.3% K-rate, B- grade — slightly better
- WAIT — ERROR CHECK: Schultz is CWS AWAY pitcher (5.32 ERA), Ray is SF HOME pitcher (4.62 ERA). Ray is better. This is back-end vs back-end, not a mismatch.
- Oracle Park suppresses runs (0.88 park factor, -12% runs). Wind 11 mph IN = -0.7 runs. Total naturally suppressed.
- Model projects CWS 60.3% due to lineup advantages (Murakami, Vargas both 30% HR prob) but pitching is NEUTRAL at best
Risk Factors
- Pitcher mismatch CLAIM IS INCORRECT: Schultz (5.32) vs Ray (4.62) is nearly even, NOT a mismatch favoring CWS
- CWS away in RED zone (44.5% WR) with high edge (19.4%) = worst-performing zone combo. Model overconfident by 5-7%.
- Oracle Park wind suppression (-0.7 runs) means totals naturally lower; runs less likely despite edge claim
PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 63.1%
-51.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-51.6 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →