FINAL: ARI 7 — DET 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ARI 5.0 - DET 6.5 (DET at 59.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.5 total runs.
ARI
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
DET
6.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIDET
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
568
ARI
357
Projected
ARI 5.0 — DET 6.5
Actual
ARI 7 — DET 5
Pick Results
F5 UNDER 5.5f5_totalWIN+0.71u
DET @ ARI NRFInrfiWIN+1.06u
UNDER 9.5totalLOSS-1.00u
ARI MLmlWIN+0.93u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tarik Skubal L
DET
CH30%88 mph48% whiff
FF29%98 mph25% whiff
SI23%97 mph16% whiff
Zac Gallen R
ARI
FF45%94 mph10% whiff
KC23%81 mph36% whiff
CH16%86 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
90°F15 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.995
thin air, 12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
5.16ERA
5.12FIP
8.89K/9
5.62BB/9
1.71WHIP
ARI
4.99ERA
4.50FIP
8.41K/9
3.95BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.9% EV
-182
F5_ML HOME
-23.6% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-22.0% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+16.7% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
+16.6% EV
-106
ML HOME
-16.2% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.9 runs
53.5% win
ARI F5
2.0 runs
31.5% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
59.0%
YRFI
41.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Zac Gallen
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Trey Sweeney SS10-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP15-DAY-IL
Sawyer Gipson-Long RP15-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
Scott Effross RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Adrian Del Castillo C10-DAY-IL
Kyle Amendt RPDAY-TO-DAY
Pavin Smith 1B10-DAY-IL
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
Merrill Kelly SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 59.4%
-44.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.9 pts
Total
9.5
+16.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →