DET vs ATL prediction for April 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.6 - DET 5.4. DET is favored with a 55.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
ATL
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLDET
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
357
ATL
357
Pick Results
Kevin Mcgonigle OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Mize R
DET
FF33%93 mph20% whiff
FS29%87 mph34% whiff
SL23%87 mph25% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
SI32%90 mph7% whiff
CH29%83 mph22% whiff
FC22%87 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
74°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.019
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.43ERA
4.43FIP
8.55K/9
4.76BB/9
1.49WHIP
ATL
3.17ERA
2.89FIP
9.77K/9
3.33BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.4% EV
-200
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.8% EV
+164
F5_ML HOME
-17.3% EV
-112
ML HOME
-15.9% EV
-123
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-15.4% EV
+100
ML AWAY
+10.3% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
3.2 runs
50.7% win
ATL F5
2.6 runs
36.2% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Jahmai Jones DET30.0%
ISO: 0.135 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Martín Pérez | Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.179 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Martín Pérez | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.334 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Casey Mize | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
Zach McKinstry 2B10-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
Raisel Iglesias RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
Dylan Lee RPPATERNITY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE43.5% WR (n=7)
Casey Mize (2.71 ERA, B grade, 25.9% K rate) vs Martín Pérez (2.92 ERA, C+ grade, 15.4% K rate) — Clean away pitcher advantage despite being underdog; DET at 55.9% model vs market 48.5% implied = 10.3% edge; away ML 10-15% range shows 59.2% WR historically; warm weather (73.8F, thin air 1.175 density) favors overs but totals disabled; LEAN on DET ML value.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage away: Mize 2.71 ERA, B grade (25.9% K/9) vs Pérez 2.92 ERA, C+ grade (15.4% K/9) — 0.21 ERA gap, 10.5% K rate gap
- Model edge 10.3% on away ML — sits in 10-15% zone which shows 59.2% WR historically (profitable)
- Away ML red zone (42% WR) vs profitable edge zone (59.2%) = net +17% vs red-zone baseline
- Warm weather (73.8F, high humidity, thin air) suggests offensive pressure, favoring DET runs but totals disabled
- Market pricing DET as underdog (+106) despite pitcher advantage — away penalty in pricing is real
Risk Factors
- Away team penalty (42% historical) is structural disadvantage; even 10% edge faces headwind
- ATL bullpen might be stronger than ERA suggests; DET bullpen might be weaker
- Warm weather could favor HOME team's power hitters more than away (Olson 30.0 HR prob vs DET 30.0 avg)
PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY UNDERDOG VALUEPROFITABLE EDGE RANGEWARM WEATHER PRESSURE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 55.9%
-17.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.8 pts
Total
8.5
+5.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →