DET vs ATL prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.3 - DET 4.7. DET is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
ATL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLDET
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
357
ATL
246
Projected
ATL 4.3 — DET 4.7
Actual
ATL 4 — DET 3
Pick Results
Mauricio Dubon OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.71u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tarik Skubal L
DET
FF39%96 mph15% whiff
CH26%87 mph49% whiff
SI19%96 mph8% whiff
JR Ritchie R
ATL
CU28%82 mph43% whiff
FF27%94 mph14% whiff
CH21%88 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
78°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.000 Total: 0.997
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.46ERA
4.40FIP
8.65K/9
4.60BB/9
1.48WHIP
ATL
3.29ERA
3.00FIP
9.75K/9
3.25BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.8% EV
-147
F5_ML AWAY
-14.2% EV
-182
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.1% EV
+122
ML AWAY
-10.4% EV
-143
F5_ML HOME
+9.0% EV
+144
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-8.8% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.5 runs
44.6% win
ATL F5
2.3 runs
39.3% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
59.8%
YRFI
40.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.314 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs JR Ritchie | Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs JR Ritchie
Spencer Torkelson DET30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs JR Ritchie
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
JR Ritchie
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Raisel Iglesias RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 51.3%
-34.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.8 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →