DET vs BAL prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.7 - DET 3.3. BAL is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
BAL
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALDET
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
135
BAL
357
Projected
BAL 4.7 — DET 3.3
Actual
BAL 7 — DET 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF49%92 mph13% whiff
SL26%85 mph27% whiff
KC18%78 mph37% whiff
Keegan Akin L
BAL
FF51%94 mph21% whiff
SL28%86 mph23% whiff
CH20%87 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
57°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.019 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.21ERA
4.14FIP
8.98K/9
4.30BB/9
1.38WHIP
BAL
4.53ERA
4.00FIP
9.28K/9
3.91BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-51.0% EV
-182
F5_ML AWAY
-29.1% EV
+104
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-17.2% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
+15.5% EV
-130
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+14.0% EV
+150
ML AWAY
-12.2% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
1.6 runs
26.0% win
BAL F5
2.9 runs
58.1% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
58.6%
YRFI
41.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
23%
Samuel Basallo BAL23.4%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Adley Rutschman BAL18.8%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL16.2%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Keegan Akin
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.9% WR (n=164)
BAL home favorite at -138 shows moderate 2.8% ML edge (59.7% prob) with strong F5_ML edge (15.5%, 65.2% prob). Market mispricing slightly at 58.1% implied. Keegan Akin (B- grade, 0.485 score) slightly edges Jack Flaherty (C+ grade, 0.401 score) in quality. RUN_LINE edge 14.0% on HOME -1.5 suggests market undervaluing margin of victory.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality gap: Keegan Akin (B- grade, 0.485 score, 21.8% K-rate, 10.4% BB-rate) vs Jack Flaherty (C+ grade, 0.401 score, 23.3% K-rate, 13.2% BB-rate) — Akin better command/control, Flaherty higher K but walks more hitters
- F5_ML home edge 15.5% (65.2% prob) is strong early-game predictor; Akin dominance in first 5 innings likely
- RUN_LINE home -1.5 edge 14.0% (45.6% prob) suggests market underpricing BAL margin — home team expected to win by comfortable margin
- Camden Yards park factor 1.03 (slight HR boost) + neutral weather (56.8F, 4.6mph tail) = pitcher-favorable overall
- BAL improved with recent pickups (Pete Alonso offensive boost); lineup construction better than DET
Risk Factors
- 2.8% ML edge is thin on -138 odds; edge dissipates after accounting for juice
- DET lineup has decent offensive tools; if Flaherty avoids walks, he could be effective
- F5_ML 15.5% edge is attractive but F5_ML is disabled market per calibration (48.8% WR) — avoid betting early innings
PITCHER ADVANTAGEWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 60.6%
+14.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+14.0 pts
Total
8.5
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →