DET vs BAL prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.9 - DET 4.5. DET is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
BAL
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
DET
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALDET
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
346
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.9 — DET 4.5
Actual
BAL 1 — DET 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI46%94 mph8% whiff
CU30%78 mph31% whiff
CH20%89 mph22% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF43%94 mph21% whiff
FS19%88 mph17% whiff
SL16%83 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
66°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.15ERA
4.13FIP
8.90K/9
4.32BB/9
1.39WHIP
BAL
4.46ERA
3.96FIP
9.43K/9
3.80BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.9% EV
-204
F5_ML HOME
-17.2% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.8% EV
+168
ML HOME
-14.0% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-13.0% EV
-115
ML AWAY
+8.1% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.5 runs
47.8% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
35.4% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
57.2%
YRFI
42.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Dillon Dingler DET25.1%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x
Pete Alonso BAL20.3%
ISO: 0.158 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL18.2%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Brant Hurter RP15-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Coby Mayo 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE50.5% WR (n=324)
DET away ML edge of 8.1% is modest but sits in GREEN zone (home ML pickem 53.1% WR) when inverted to away fav. Valdez (3.79 ERA, 7.4 K/9) slightly outpitches Young (0 ERA tracked, 6.8 K/9), but edge is marginal.
Key Factors
- Framber Valdez (LHP): 3.79 Bayesian ERA, 7.4 K/9, excellent sinker-curveball combo (46% SI, 30% CU) vs DET lineup
- Brandon Young (RHP): Lower strikeout rate (6.8 K/9) and untracked ERA (likely 4.5+), C+ overall grade
- DET away split slightly negative historically (44.3% WR) but this matchup is vs weak pitcher
- Park neutral (1.03 factor at Camden Yards), weather neutral (65.9F, light wind, open roof)
- Model edge of 4% is within GREEN zone average — confidence appropriate for standard Kelly bet
Risk Factors
- DET lineup compromised by injuries (Torres, Baez out), reducing offensive potential by ~0.3 runs
- BAL bullpen ERA is solid (3.2) but closer tier weaker; 8+ inning games favor relief arms
- 8.1% edge is close to our minimum actionable threshold; variance risk is elevated
PITCHER MISMATCHMILD EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 53.8%
-16.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.8 pts
Total
8.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →