DET vs BAL prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.9 - DET 4.5. DET is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
BAL
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
DET
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALDET
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
346
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.9 — DET 4.5
Actual
BAL 1 — DET 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI46%94 mph8% whiff
CU30%78 mph31% whiff
CH20%89 mph22% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF43%94 mph21% whiff
FS19%88 mph17% whiff
SL16%83 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
66°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.15ERA
4.13FIP
8.90K/9
4.32BB/9
1.39WHIP
BAL
4.46ERA
3.96FIP
9.43K/9
3.80BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.9% EV
-204
F5_ML HOME
-17.2% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.8% EV
+168
ML HOME
-14.0% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-13.0% EV
-115
ML AWAY
+8.1% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.5 runs
47.8% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
35.4% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
57.2%
YRFI
42.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Dillon Dingler DET25.1%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x
Pete Alonso BAL20.3%
ISO: 0.158 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL18.2%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Brant Hurter RP15-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Coby Mayo 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
DET away ML edge of 8.1% is modest but sits historically well-supported when inverted to away fav. Valdez (3.79 ERA, 7.4 K/9) slightly outpitches Young (0 ERA tracked, 6.8 K/9), but edge is marginal.
Key Factors
- Framber Valdez (LHP): 3.79 Bayesian ERA, 7.4 K/9, excellent sinker-curveball combo (46% SI, 30% CU) vs DET lineup
- Brandon Young (RHP): Lower strikeout rate (6.8 K/9) and untracked ERA (likely 4.5+), C+ overall grade
- DET away split slightly negative historically (44.3% WR) but this matchup is vs weak pitcher
- Park neutral (1.03 factor at Camden Yards), weather neutral (65.9F, light wind, open roof)
- Model edge of 4% is within historically well-supported average — confidence appropriate for standard Kelly bet
Risk Factors
- DET lineup compromised by injuries (Torres, Baez out), reducing offensive potential by ~0.3 runs
- BAL bullpen ERA is solid (3.2) but closer tier weaker; 8+ inning games favor relief arms
- 8.1% edge is close to our minimum actionable threshold; variance risk is elevated
PITCHER MISMATCHMILD EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 53.8%
-16.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.8 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →