DET vs CLE prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 6.0 - DET 4.2. CLE is favored with a 64.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
CLE
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEDET
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.7% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
CLE
468
Projected
CLE 6.0 — DET 4.2
Actual
CLE 3 — DET 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF49%93 mph16% whiff
SL25%85 mph28% whiff
KC20%78 mph36% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FC26%86 mph35% whiff
FF24%94 mph11% whiff
SI19%94 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
77°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.994
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.36ERA
4.29FIP
8.81K/9
4.24BB/9
1.39WHIP
CLE
3.62ERA
3.58FIP
10.47K/9
3.50BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-31.1% EV
+164
F5_ML AWAY
-28.3% EV
-106
ML AWAY
-23.9% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-16.7% EV
-200
F5_ML HOME
+16.6% EV
-118
ML HOME
+14.6% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.3 runs
29.2% win
CLE F5
3.7 runs
59.2% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
45.7%
YRFI
54.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.30
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.281 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Travis Bazzana CLE29.4%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Trey Sweeney SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE56.6% WR (n=98)
Home favorite CLE vastly underpriced by market: Model 64.3% vs market 54.1% (14.6% ML edge). Tanner Bibee (4.42 ERA, B- grade) starts against Jack Flaherty (5.73 ERA, weaker B-). CLE has bullpen depth advantage (recent Jansen activation). Edge is at calibration ceiling (max 15% for ML in elevated confidence mode) but driven by true SP mismatch and bullpen actuals, not model overconfidence.
Key Factors
- Bibee vs Flaherty: 4.42 vs 5.73 ERA (1.31-point gap) with command differential (0.689 vs 0.46) — validates 14%+ edge
- F5 mismatch clear: +11.3% edge (60.8% model) — CLE early scoring dominance vs Flaherty's volatile control
- Jansen activation +0.75pt swing (CLE closer now at peak strength; DET bullpen aged one day without Jansen depth)
Risk Factors
- 14.6% edge at MAX calibration ceiling — model must not be overconfident. But SP gap is real (5.73 vs 4.42 ERA is material difference), and Jansen activation adds tangible edge.
- Market might be right: DET has league's best record or highest run differential — edge of 14.6% should not exist if market is rational unless market undervalues bullpen health
PITCHER MISMATCHBULLPEN REFRESHF5 EDGE STRONGGREEN ZONEHIGH EDGE ELEVATED CONFIDENCE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 64.3%
-16.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-16.7 pts
Total
8.5
+2.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →