DET vs CWS prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.5 - DET 4.5. CWS is favored with a 59.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
CWS
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSDET
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.3% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
346
CWS
467
Projected
CWS 5.5 — DET 4.5
Actual
CWS 4 — DET 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Troy Melton R
DET
FF45%97 mph25% whiff
SL21%86 mph26% whiff
SI11%96 mph11% whiff
Erick Fedde R
CWS
ST37%82 mph22% whiff
SI28%94 mph4% whiff
FC23%90 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
70°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.033
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.40ERA
4.25FIP
9.02K/9
4.41BB/9
1.41WHIP
CWS
5.20ERA
5.03FIP
8.80K/9
5.16BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-24.5% EV
-182
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-23.8% EV
+150
F5_ML AWAY
-19.7% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-18.9% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-16.6% EV
-104
ML HOME
+11.9% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.5 runs
35.9% win
CWS F5
3.2 runs
51.1% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
52.1%
YRFI
47.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.336 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Troy Melton | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Drew Romo CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.304 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Troy Melton | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Troy Melton
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Kenley Jansen RP15-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 59.8%
-24.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-24.5 pts
Total
8.5
+6.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.