DET vs HOU prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 6.0 - DET 5.7. HOU is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.7 total runs.
HOU
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUDET
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,410 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
468
HOU
468
Projected
HOU 6.0 — DET 5.7
Actual
HOU 4 — DET 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Mize R
DET
FF33%93 mph20% whiff
FS27%87 mph32% whiff
SL25%88 mph32% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
FF30%94 mph16% whiff
CH22%88 mph37% whiff
SL18%86 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
82°F14 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.107 Total: 1.059
thin air, 13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-36.9% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+29.1% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.4% EV
-175
F5 OVER 4.5
+17.3% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.4% EV
+146
ML AWAY
-9.7% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
3.2 runs
43.4% win
HOU F5
3.3 runs
44.0% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
44.9%
YRFI
55.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.32
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Gleyber Torres 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE53.2% WR (n=100)
HOU OVER 8.5 has massive 29.1% edge (model 65.9%, market ~36%), but this is HIGH-EDGE territory where model historically underperforms (37.5% WR on 10-15% edges, 54.5% on 15%+). Houston's 13.8 mph wind blowing OUT is a +1.0 run boost. Mize (2.45 ERA, B stuff) is strong, but Lambert (3.75 ERA, B- stuff) allows runs. Lean the over but cap at 0.75 units due to calibration warning.
Key Factors
- Wind direction critical: Houston 13.8 mph wind blowing out (tail wind +13 mph) = +1.0-1.2 run boost from weather alone per model specs
- Pitcher moderate quality: Mize (B stuff, 2.45 ERA, 25.6% K rate) vs Lambert (B- stuff, 3.75 ERA, 21.8% K rate). Mize better but not elite; both allow contact
- Model 11.73 total vs market 8.5 = 3.23 run edge; 29.1% edge is in HIGH-EDGE TRAP zone where model underperforms historically
- Zone: OVER total plays at 53.2% WR (n=100 bets) in YELLOW zone — right at breakeven; not a GREEN zone, no upside confirmation
- Houston injuries reduce middle-infield depth (0.5 pt swing down) but don't fundamentally change run environment
Risk Factors
- MASSIVE EDGE WARNING (29.1%): Model likely overconfident. Calibration shows 15%+ edges only 37.5% WR. Cap units and expect loss variance
- Market 8.5 total is remarkably soft — possible sharp action is AGAINST the over at this low number
- Both teams' bullpens fresh today (no data on recent usage), reducing injury risk but also unpredictable
HIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUECAUTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 53.0%
-28.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.4 pts
Total
8.5
+29.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →