DET vs KC prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.3 - DET 4.0. KC is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
KC
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
DET
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCDET
-1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DETKC L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
KC
246
Projected
KC 4.3 — DET 4.0
Actual
KC 5 — DET 1
Pick Results
Michael Wacha OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.48u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Burch Smith R
DET
FF37%94 mph31% whiff
FC22%88 mph16% whiff
CU21%82 mph26% whiff
Michael Wacha R
KC
FF29%93 mph18% whiff
CH23%80 mph28% whiff
FC17%89 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
78°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.004
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
3.77ERA
3.95FIP
9.47K/9
4.55BB/9
1.42WHIP
KC
4.66ERA
4.72FIP
8.73K/9
5.32BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.8% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-28.4% EV
-118
NRFI NRFI
+20.0% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 5.5
+9.1% EV
-145
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.9% EV
+146
F5_ML HOME
-6.7% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.1 runs
37.7% win
KC F5
2.4 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
64.4%
YRFI
35.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET29.1%
ISO: 0.234 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x
Carter Jensen KC24.5%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Burch Smith | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Burch Smith
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
Trey Sweeney SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE53.0% WR (n=144)
Model projects KC at 54.6% home with multiple small edges (NRFI 20%, F5 UNDER 9.1%), but ML market is nearly efficient (-138 = 58% implied vs model 55%). No clear directional bet. NRFI is interesting (60% model prob) but requires game context not available.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge: Burch Smith (1.72 ERA, 30.2% K, B grade) >> Wacha (3.29 ERA, 20.9% K, B- grade). KC +1.57 ERA edge.
- ML pricing: KC -138 = 58% implied vs model 55% home = -3% edge. Efficient market.
- NRFI edge 20%: 60% model prob vs standard 50% threshold, but calibration requires 8%+.
- Park: Kauffman neutral, 77.6F, 7mph in. No park edge.
Risk Factors
- Small edges across multiple markets means no dominant conviction.
- KC record and DET record unknown—context needed.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 54.6%
-6.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.9 pts
Total
9.0
+5.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →