DET vs NYM prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.1 - DET 2.9. NYM is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
NYM
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
DET
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMDET
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
135
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.1 — DET 2.9
Actual
NYM 10 — DET 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF47%93 mph13% whiff
SL26%85 mph30% whiff
KC19%78 mph36% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF54%94 mph21% whiff
CH22%87 mph26% whiff
CU14%80 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
58°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.028
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.00ERA
4.02FIP
9.34K/9
4.47BB/9
1.40WHIP
NYM
4.16ERA
3.80FIP
9.38K/9
3.79BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.3% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-34.5% EV
-104
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+23.2% EV
-118
F5 UNDER 4.5
+16.6% EV
-135
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.3% EV
+150
NRFI NRFI
+9.2% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
1.5 runs
34.3% win
NYM F5
1.9 runs
43.9% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
66.6%
YRFI
33.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Mark Vientos NYM28.6%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.96x
Juan Soto NYM26.5%
ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET23.2%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFOUT
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Joe Jacques RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 54.2%
-12.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.3 pts
Total
7.5
+23.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →