DET vs NYM prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 2.6 - DET 3.6. DET is favored with a 60.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
NYM
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
DET
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMDET
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 2.6 — DET 3.6
Actual
NYM 3 — DET 2
Pick Results
Christian Scott OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.76u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI46%94 mph8% whiff
CU30%78 mph32% whiff
CH21%89 mph22% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF55%96 mph23% whiff
FC24%89 mph14% whiff
ST16%81 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
61°F19 mph wind
HR: 1.094 Total: 1.055
17mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.47ERA
4.16FIP
9.31K/9
4.57BB/9
1.44WHIP
NYM
4.07ERA
3.77FIP
9.43K/9
3.83BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-51.5% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-42.2% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+24.2% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-22.5% EV
-104
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+22.3% EV
-115
NRFI NRFI
+22.1% EV
-111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.0 runs
49.0% win
NYM F5
1.2 runs
28.4% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
69.1%
YRFI
30.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
21%
Dillon Dingler DET26.1%
ISO: 0.274 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.96x
Mark Vientos NYM22.4%
ISO: 0.154 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET14.8%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Grae Kessinger 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=252)
Framber Valdez (4.94 ERA, C+ grade, mediocre stuff 0.26) vs Christian Scott (3.53 ERA, B- grade, better stuff 0.50) with massive model-projected run suppression (6.18 total vs 8.0 market) creates +22.3% UNDER edge. F5 UNDER +24.2%, NRFI +22.1%, and away ML +13.4% all align; this is a rare multi-signal convergence bet on DET @ NYM UNDER 8.0.
Key Factors
- Pitcher gap: Scott 3.53 ERA (B- grade, better stuff 0.50) vs Valdez 4.94 ERA (C+ grade, weak stuff 0.26)
- UNDER edge: +22.3% (model 65.4% under vs market 37.7% for under); 1.82 run gap on 8.0 total is massive
- F5 UNDER: +24.2% edge (67.9% model prob); both starters dominating early
- NRFI: +22.1% edge (64.2% NRFI prob); pitcher dominance extends to first inning
- Away ML: +13.4% edge (57.8% DET win prob); away team has superior starter and scoreless potential
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone on totals (50.4% WR) — betting totals is historically unreliable in our system
- 17 mph wind OUT: counterintuitive that Citi Field becomes pitcher-friendly, but model sees this through runscoring simulation
- Elite edge (22%+) has worst track record; expect regression toward 50%, so size down to 1.0 units despite conviction
PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY VALUEF5 EDGENRFI EDGEWEATHER IMPACTMULTIPLE EDGES
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 60.8%
-51.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-51.5 pts
Total
8.0
+22.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →