DET vs NYM prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 2.4 - DET 3.2. DET is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
NYM
2.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
DET
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMDET
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (2,063 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
135
NYM
024
Projected
NYM 2.4 — DET 3.2
Actual
NYM 9 — DET 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Keider Montero R
DET
FF34%94 mph11% whiff
SI21%94 mph7% whiff
SL16%85 mph27% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI36%95 mph16% whiff
FF18%96 mph19% whiff
ST16%85 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
66°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.995
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.41ERA
4.08FIP
9.41K/9
4.50BB/9
1.43WHIP
NYM
3.93ERA
3.74FIP
9.37K/9
3.87BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-40.6% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-38.4% EV
+134
F5 UNDER 3.5
+31.8% EV
+106
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-29.9% EV
-161
ML AWAY
+28.3% EV
+138
F5_ML AWAY
+27.9% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
1.5 runs
42.7% win
NYM F5
1.1 runs
30.8% win
F5 Total
2.7
NRFI
72.0%
YRFI
28.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.49
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM26.5%
ISO: 0.186 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.96x
MJ Melendez NYM20.3%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Grae Kessinger 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE45.6% WR (n=146)
Model showed 28.3% AWAY ML edge (DET +138) in RED zone (45.6% WR for away ML) — classic overconfidence. Market correctly priced NYM -163 at 62% (model only 46.1%). NYM won 9-4 decisively. Model failed.
Key Factors
- Pitcher profiles: McLean 3.00 ERA (32.6% K) vs Montero 3.43 ERA (18.7% K) favor NYM at home, but model's 46.1% DET win prob is counterintuitive.
- Market-model gap: NYM market 62% vs model 46.1% = 15.9pp delta — massive conflict suggests model overconfidence.
- Edge 28.3% EXCEEDS calibration cap of 12%, flagged HIGH_EDGE_WARNING.
- RED zone: away ML historically 45.6% WR (146 samples), meaning model bets on away teams lose 54.4% — exactly what happened.
- Park-neutral (Citi Field 1.0) removes park advantage, so edge entirely on pitchers and lineup, where market's home premium (3-5%) was appropriate.
Risk Factors
- High edge (28.3%) is anti-correlated with outcomes per calibration history — 15%+ edges show 38.1% WR in tracked data.
- Model missed that despite weaker apparent SP stats (ERA, K%), Montero's command (A- grade) and DET's lineup limitations made them genuine underdogs.
- Away ML in RED zone is worst combination — should have been auto-skipped or confidence capped at -1 minimum.
RESOLVED GAMEHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTDATA INTEGRITYOVERCONFIDENCE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 58.6%
-38.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-38.4 pts
Total
7.5
+27.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →