DET vs NYY prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 6.0 - DET 5.2. NYY is favored with a 58.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
NYY
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
DET
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYDET
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
357
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 6.0 — DET 5.2
Actual
NYY 3 — DET 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Mize R
DET
FF34%94 mph24% whiff
FS26%88 mph33% whiff
SL25%88 mph30% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF29%96 mph17% whiff
CH23%86 mph34% whiff
ST20%81 mph44% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.0% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-37.6% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+25.1% EV
-123
F5 OVER 4.5
+21.6% EV
+104
ML AWAY
-8.1% EV
+116
F5_ML HOME
-7.8% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
3.1 runs
42.2% win
NYY F5
3.3 runs
45.4% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
46.7%
YRFI
53.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.23
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET30.0%
ISO: 0.151 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
David Bednar RPPATERNITY
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 58.1%
+5.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.4 pts
Total
7.5
+25.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →