FINAL: NYY 3 — DET 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 5.3 - DET 5.5 (NYY at 50.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
NYY
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
DET
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYDET
+1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DET W5NYY L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
467
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.3 — DET 5.5
Actual
NYY 3 — DET 9
Pick Results
NYY MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tarik Skubal L
DET
FF36%97 mph17% whiff
CH26%87 mph47% whiff
SI20%97 mph13% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF44%98 mph30% whiff
FC27%94 mph18% whiff
SI20%98 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
85°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-37.8% EV
-123
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.3% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+32.6% EV
+102
F5 OVER 3.5
+23.2% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-118
ML HOME
-5.5% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.8 runs
42.9% win
NYY F5
2.9 runs
43.8% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
50.7%
YRFI
49.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Paul Goldschmidt NYY29.8%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Tarik Skubal | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET27.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 1.10x
Kerry Carpenter DET26.3%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Matt Seelinger RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
David Bednar RPPATERNITY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=280)
TOTALS edge exceptional: Schlittler (B, 28.9% K rate, 9.7 K/9, FB-heavy 43/27 FF/FC) vs Tarik Skubal (B+, 27.9% K rate, 9.2 K/9, balanced arsenal). Pitchers are similar quality (both B/B+), so sides wash. But TOTALS: Model 10.79 total, market 7.5 only (34.4% implied under). 32.6% edge on over 7.5 is extreme but tied to Yankee Stadium park factor (+1.1 HR boost, +1.8% total run multiplier). Hot game (84.9°F, 10.3 mph wind = neutral +0.9 tail wind). Both teams strong offenses (DET Kerry Carpenter ISO 0.27, NYY Paul Goldschmidt ISO 0.36). RISK: 32.6% edge AUTO-CAPS model at 20% (calibration prevents >20% ML edge predictions). Zone lookup on 32.6% edge shows YELLOW (50.1% WR, n=280) — totals zone is problematic overall. SKIP CALIBRATION feedback: Totals action PENALIZE (49.6% WR, n=273). RESOLUTION: LEAN over 7.5 at 0.75 units, not full bet. Expect model to be 3-5pp overconfident on this edge.
Key Factors
- Park factor NYY +1.1 (1.8% total multiplier) = +0.76 runs to 10.03 baseline total
- Schlittler (B, 9.7 K/9) and Skubal (B+, 9.2 K/9) are similar strikeout profiles — no pitcher edge
- NYY lineup: Paul Goldschmidt (ISO 0.366, 29.8% HR prob) — power threat
- DET lineup: Dillon Dingler (ISO 0.294, 27% HR prob), Kerry Carpenter (ISO 0.27, 26.3% HR prob) — solid power
- Model 10.79 vs market 7.5 = 3.29 run gap is EXTREME for totals
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE WARNING: 32.6% > 20% calibration cap — model capped at artificial ceiling, may be overconfident
- TOTALS AUTO-DISABLED OVER zone: 47.8% WR, -19.1 units over 221 bets — systemic problem with model's over projections
- SKIP calibration PENALIZE on totals: 49.6% WR, n=273 — suggests model's total predictions unreliable
HIGH EDGE WARNING 32.6%OVER BETS AUTO DISABLEDPARK FACTOR DEPENDENTTOTALS ZONE YELLOWCALIBRATION OVERCAP 20%CONFIDENCE DOWNGRADE WARRANTED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.7%
-35.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.3 pts
Total
7.5
+32.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →