DET vs NYY prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.6 - DET 5.7. NYY is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
NYY
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
DET
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYDET
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
468
NYY
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tarik Skubal L
DET
FF36%97 mph17% whiff
CH26%87 mph47% whiff
SI20%97 mph13% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF44%98 mph30% whiff
FC27%94 mph18% whiff
SI20%98 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
96°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.008 Total: 1.002
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.4% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-16.4% EV
-105
ML HOME
-11.4% EV
-143
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.7% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+6.8% EV
-115
ML AWAY
+5.3% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
3.0 runs
43.6% win
NYY F5
3.0 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
50.3%
YRFI
49.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 1.10x
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Tarik Skubal | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Matt Seelinger RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
David Bednar RPPATERNITY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.6%
-8.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.7 pts
Total
9.5
+6.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →