FINAL: SD 2 — DET 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 3.3 - DET 4.4 (DET at 60.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
SD
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
DET
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDDET
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DETSD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.3 — DET 4.4
Actual
SD 2 — DET 8
Pick Results
DET MLmlWIN+0.83u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tarik Skubal L
DET
CH30%88 mph47% whiff
FF29%98 mph25% whiff
SI23%97 mph17% whiff
Nick Pivetta R
SD
FF49%94 mph22% whiff
CU22%79 mph16% whiff
ST18%82 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
78°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.000 Total: 0.998
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
3.54ERA
3.96FIP
8.02K/9
3.48BB/9
1.26WHIP
SD
3.12ERA
3.60FIP
9.61K/9
3.47BB/9
1.17WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.6% EV
-167
ML HOME
-14.4% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-13.0% EV
+124
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-9.0% EV
-110
ML AWAY
+6.9% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+4.2% EV
+139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.5 runs
52.6% win
SD F5
1.7 runs
30.8% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
60.4%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Kerry Carpenter DET14.2%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Nick Pivetta | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Riley Greene DET12.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Nick Pivetta | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Manny Machado SD11.9%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Tarik Skubal | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Nick Pivetta
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Trey Sweeney SS10-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP15-DAY-IL
Sawyer Gipson-Long RP15-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
Scott Effross RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Yuki Matsui RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Hoeing RP15-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE53.4% WR (n=28)
Tarik Skubal (A-, 0.800 overall, 11.0 K/9, 33.8% K rate, 4.4% BB rate) is the slate's best starter by a significant margin, and pitching at Petco Park (park factor 0.90, -10% runs) in mild conditions against Nick Pivetta (B, 0.595 overall, 9.7 K/9) makes DET ML at -121 the cleanest bet on the board — a genuine ace-level performance is expected with zone confirmation.
Key Factors
- Skubal overall grade A- (0.800) — highest on today's 22-pitcher slate by wide margin; Pivetta grades B (0.595) = substantial mismatch
- Skubal K rate 33.8%, BB rate 4.4% (elite command+stuff combo) vs Pivetta K rate 26.9%, BB rate 6.7% — every advanced metric favors Skubal
- Petco Park factor 0.90 — 10% run suppression plays to Skubal's strengths; model projects only 7.66 total in already-deflated environment
- DET away ML 6.9% edge: model 58.7% vs market implied 54.9% — 3.8% probability gap, away favorite profile in YELLOW zone (53.4% WR, 28 samples)
- F5 ML edge +1.6% for DET (62.7% probability first 5 innings) — Skubal dominance expected through 5+ innings
Risk Factors
- Away ML lands in broader RED zone (37.9% historical WR across all away ML bets) — structural drag, but away FAVORITE profile is YELLOW (53.4% WR) not as severe
- Petco Park also suppresses Skubal's run support — even if he dominates, DET may not score much
- SD bullpen ERA 3.12 (elite, best closing unit on slate with closer ERA 2.55) — any late-game lead by SD is well-protected
PITCHER MISMATCHPARK FACTORML VALUEDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 60.0%
-45.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.6 pts
Total
7.0
+2.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →