FINAL: SD 2 — DET 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 2.7 - DET 3.6 (DET at 59.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
SD
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
DET
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDDET
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DETSD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 2.7 — DET 3.6
Actual
SD 2 — DET 5
Pick Results
DET @ SD NRFInrfiWIN+0.72u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI45%94 mph11% whiff
CU33%79 mph41% whiff
CH18%90 mph27% whiff
Michael King R
SD
SI28%93 mph14% whiff
FF24%94 mph29% whiff
CH20%87 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
68°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.996
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
3.54ERA
3.96FIP
8.02K/9
3.48BB/9
1.26WHIP
SD
3.12ERA
3.60FIP
9.61K/9
3.47BB/9
1.17WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.2% EV
-213
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-28.6% EV
+176
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-27.2% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-23.9% EV
-120
ML HOME
-21.7% EV
-130
ML AWAY
+19.2% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.0 runs
49.6% win
SD F5
1.4 runs
29.4% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
64.0%
YRFI
36.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Manny Machado SD13.7%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Riley Greene DET12.3%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET8.9%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Trey Sweeney SS10-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP15-DAY-IL
Sawyer Gipson-Long RP15-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
Scott Effross RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Yuki Matsui RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Hoeing RP15-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=970)
Petco Park (-12% runs, park factor 0.90) plus two ground ball/sinker-heavy starters (Valdez 45% sinker, King 28% sinker) and SD's elite bullpen (3.12 ERA, setup 2.82) create a genuine under thesis at 7.5 — model projects 6.30 runs with a 64.8% under probability.
Key Factors
- Model total 6.30 vs market 7.5 — gap of -1.20 runs; 64.8% under probability
- Petco Park factor 0.90 — one of the top run-suppressing venues in baseball (-12% run environment)
- Framber Valdez pitch mix: 45.0% sinker + 32.8% curveball — extreme ground ball pitcher, severely limits extra-base hits at Petco
- SD bullpen elite: 3.12 ERA overall, closer ERA 2.55, setup ERA 2.82 — one of top 3 bullpens in baseball; late-game runs almost impossible
- F5 under 3.5 edge: 14.4% (model prob 56.1%) — the first five innings project just 3.41 combined runs; clean F5 under angle
Risk Factors
- DET ML edge 19.2% — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; this far exceeds ML calibration cap of 8.0%; avoid DET ML despite the model
- Away underdog ML (DET) in RED zone: 38.1% historical WR — structural trap; SD is correctly favored at home with King (B-) vs Valdez (B)
- Under calibration is RESTRICTED (grade F, 18% min edge) — the 18.0% edge here barely meets the minimum threshold per regime calibrator
PARK FACTORTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 59.8%
-28.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-28.6 pts
Total
7.5
+18.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →