Who is predicted to win DET vs TB on June 1, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, TB is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is TB 5.0 - DET 4.8.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

DET vs TB Prediction & Picks — June 1, 2026

DET vs TB prediction for June 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.0 - DET 4.8. TB is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.

5.0

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

DET

4.8

Projected Score

Win Probability

53.9%

46.1%

TBDET

-1.5

Run Line (TB)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

DET

357

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Ty Madden R

DET

FF30%93 mph8% whiff

FC23%88 mph42% whiff

SI19%92 mph25% whiff

Griffin Jax R

ST26%88 mph36% whiff

FF22%96 mph19% whiff

CH19%92 mph34% whiff

Weather Impact

Tropicana Field

83°F10 mph windRoof: closed

HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000

Indoor (neutral)

Bullpen Comparison

DET

4.40ERA

4.25FIP

9.02K/9

4.41BB/9

1.41WHIP

4.13ERA

3.82FIP

8.29K/9

3.40BB/9

1.30WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-34.1% EV

-154

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

-22.4% EV

+100

F5_ML HOME

-12.9% EV

-161

TOTAL OVER 7.5

+11.4% EV

-122

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-11.1% EV

+128

ML HOME

-10.9% EV

-161

First 5 Innings & NRFI

DET F5

2.6 runs

40.9% win

TB F5

2.7 runs

44.3% win

F5 Total

5.3

NRFI

55.0%

YRFI

45.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.00

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.4

Over 0.5 HR

90%

Over 1.5 HR

68%

No HR

10%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Ty Madden

0.0 K projected

DET | K/9: 0.0

Griffin Jax

0.0 K projected

TB | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

DET8 injured

Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL

Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL

Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL

Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL

Kenley Jansen RP15-DAY-IL

Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

TB8 injured

Craig Kimbrel RP15-DAY-IL

Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL

Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL

Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL

Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL

Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

Madden on IL but modeled active — skip until verified

YELLOW ZONE44.4% WR (n=7)

Ty Madden (27.9% K, B- grade) is listed 15-DAY IL (forearm) in the injury report, but the model has him as the active DET starter. This is a critical data integrity failure. Either DET will start a different (unknown) arm, or there's a sync issue. The model's 6.2% ML edge and 11.4% over edge are both unreliable pending clarification. Closed-roof Tropicana Field removes weather edge, and without confirming the actual starter, all analysis collapses. Skip this game.

DATA INTEGRITY: Madden listed 15-DAY IL (forearm) but modeled as active starter — contradiction requires resolution
If DET does start TBD arm instead of Madden, all pitcher-based edges collapse
+ 1 more factors with Premium

DATA INTEGRITYTBD PITCHER

🔒Full analysis, risk factors, and recommended action available with PremiumUnlock

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

TB 53.9%

-11.1 pts

Run Line

-1.5

-11.1 pts

Total

7.5

+11.4 pts

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

DET vs TB Prediction