HOU vs CHC prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.1 - HOU 5.8. CHC is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 11.9 total runs.
CHC
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
HOU
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCHOU
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.9% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
468
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.1 — HOU 5.8
Actual
CHC 2 — HOU 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU31%76 mph46% whiff
FF29%93 mph17% whiff
ST14%78 mph19% whiff
Jameson Taillon R
CHC
FF27%92 mph19% whiff
FC22%86 mph25% whiff
CH15%84 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
61°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.035
9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
5.23ERA
4.78FIP
8.13K/9
5.53BB/9
1.53WHIP
CHC
3.90ERA
5.11FIP
8.19K/9
4.03BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-55.3% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.0% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+34.0% EV
-115
F5 OVER 3.5
+25.8% EV
-135
F5_ML HOME
-9.9% EV
-132
NRFI YRFI
+7.2% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
3.4 runs
44.2% win
CHC F5
3.5 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
6.9
NRFI
48.3%
YRFI
51.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.24
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.291 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Cole HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.134 | Barrel: 13.4% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Braden Shewmake HOU26.7%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Jameson Taillon
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE49.9% WR (n=283)
Model overconfident: 34% edge on OVER 7.0 (71.7% prob) is RED ZONE play (49.9% historical WR); Arrighetti elite SP (1.62 ERA, 22.9% K-rate) vs Taillon's 5.37 ERA contradicts -7.2pt home ML edge on -142 odds — market pricing Taillon weakness correctly.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch EXTREME: Spencer Arrighetti (1.62 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 22.9% K-rate) vs Jameson Taillon (5.37 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 20.9% K-rate) — ace vs back-end, should favor away significantly
- Model 71.7% OVER prob but total edge 34.0% is RED zone (49.9% WR n=283) — classic overconfidence on high-edge totals when calibration says they're disabled
- Park factor 1.03 (neutral) + cold weather (60.9F, 9mph out) = modest wind edge but not enough to justify 34pt edge
- Market already priced Arrighetti at 45.5% implied vs model 45.4% — consensus view; no market failure here
- F5 OVER 3.5 shows 25.8% edge (72.3% prob) — but F5_TOTAL disabled per calibration; same overconfidence pattern
Risk Factors
- Total edge >25% = worst historical performance bucket (44.4% WR); model is WRONG more often the higher the edge
- Taillon might be due for positive regression — 5.37 ERA looks ugly but small sample size possible
- Wind direction data missing; if 9mph tail helps bats, edge could be real, but calibration says no
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONETOTALS VALUEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 54.1%
+1.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+1.9 pts
Total
7.0
+34.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →