HOU vs CHC prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.9 - HOU 5.7. CHC is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.
CHC
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCHOU
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (2,258 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
468
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 5.9 — HOU 5.7
Actual
CHC 0 — HOU 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kai-Wei Teng R
HOU
ST36%85 mph31% whiff
FF28%94 mph17% whiff
SI17%94 mph18% whiff
Colin Rea R
CHC
FF40%94 mph12% whiff
FS18%88 mph29% whiff
SL12%86 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
58°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
5.22ERA
4.85FIP
7.95K/9
5.44BB/9
1.51WHIP
CHC
3.79ERA
5.05FIP
8.27K/9
4.11BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-44.5% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+37.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.8% EV
-169
F5 OVER 3.5
+19.2% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
-14.5% EV
-139
ML HOME
-8.9% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
3.3 runs
45.8% win
CHC F5
3.2 runs
42.1% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.16
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.284 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Colin Rea | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Colin Rea | Park: 1.03x
Zach Cole HOU29.4%
ISO: 0.122 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Colin Rea | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kai-Wei Teng
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Colin Rea
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=287)
OVER 7.5 shows 37.2% edge with 70% model prob — EXTREMELY high edge triggers auto-caution. Model projects 11.62 total but market priced 7.5, a 4.12-run swing. This is model overconfidence territory. Kai-Wei Teng (away pitcher) 2.82 ERA is elite; Colin Rea (home) 5.38 ERA is weak. Without pitcher advantage, the over edge collapses significantly. Cubs 7-game losing streak suggests momentum disadvantage.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch FOR away team: Teng 2.82 ERA (B-, elite command) vs Rea 5.38 ERA (C+) = 2.56-run quality gap
- Model total 11.62 vs market 7.5: 4.12-run edge is within 95th percentile of edge magnitude
- High edge + high confidence = worst-case scenario: 37.2% edge + 70% prob = 38.1% historical WR
- Cubs momentum negative: 7-game losing streak (worst since 2022) suggests offensive malfunction beyond pitching matchup
Risk Factors
- Model projecting 11.62 runs in pitcher's duel matchup (Teng elite) — likely overestimating offense
- Wrigley Field neutral wind (4.9 mph, 357 deg) = minimal HR boost — harder to rack up runs
- High edge historical trap: When model edge >30%, market is often correctly skeptical
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHMODEL OVERCONFIDENCETEAM MOMENTUM
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.4%
-6.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.4 pts
Total
7.5
+37.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →