HOU vs CHC prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.5 - HOU 4.6. CHC is favored with a 59.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
CHC
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCHOU
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
CHC
467
Projected
CHC 5.5 — HOU 4.6
Actual
CHC 5 — HOU 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Peter Lambert R
HOU
FF30%94 mph19% whiff
CH24%88 mph41% whiff
SL17%86 mph30% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF42%92 mph16% whiff
FS34%83 mph41% whiff
ST14%82 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
69°F0 mph wind
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.014
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
5.11ERA
4.77FIP
7.97K/9
5.32BB/9
1.48WHIP
CHC
3.74ERA
5.03FIP
8.22K/9
4.11BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.0% EV
-154
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-31.5% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+25.5% EV
+102
F5 OVER 3.5
+14.9% EV
-135
F5_ML HOME
-11.1% EV
-167
ML HOME
-6.6% EV
-179
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.7 runs
39.9% win
CHC F5
3.1 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
50.5%
YRFI
49.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Matthews HOU18.0%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 7.2% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC17.9%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Yordan Alvarez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Joey Loperfido LF10-DAY-IL
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
HOU OVER 7.5 shows +25.5% edge (model 62.1% vs market ~37%) — dominant edge driven by weak pitching on both sides and Wrigley park wind neutral. F5 TOTAL OVER 3.5 shows +14.9% edge. Market drastically underpricing run environment.
Key Factors
- Peter Lambert (HOU away SP) Bayesian ERA: 3.86 (average), 23.6% K-rate, B- grade
- Shota Imanaga (CHC home SP) Bayesian ERA: 3.65 (average), 25.6% K-rate, B- grade. Nearly identical quality.
- Both SPs are average tier (no ace mismatch) — implies bullpen heavy game, more runs likely
- Wrigley Field neutral wind (0.5 mph) — no park boost/suppress. Baseline 1.03 factor applies.
- Recent form: HOU swept CHC yesterday 8-5 (per ESPN) — HOU momentum is real; lineup click despite IL losses
Risk Factors
- OVER market is disabled (F grade), but F5 TOTAL is enabled (55% WR). Model likely overestimating full-game total by using full-slate calibration.
- HOU missing 3 key bats (Altuve, Correa, Diaz) reduces offensive potential by ~0.5 runs despite recent momentum
- 25.5% edge is extreme; likely real edge is 15-20% after adjusting for HOU lineup compromises
TOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHFAVORABLE MARKET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 59.4%
-1.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.1 pts
Total
7.5
+25.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →