HOU vs CHC prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.5 - HOU 4.6. CHC is favored with a 59.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
CHC
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCHOU
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
CHC
467
Projected
CHC 5.5 — HOU 4.6
Actual
CHC 5 — HOU 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Peter Lambert R
HOU
FF30%94 mph19% whiff
CH24%88 mph41% whiff
SL17%86 mph30% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF42%92 mph16% whiff
FS34%83 mph41% whiff
ST14%82 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
69°F0 mph wind
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.014
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
5.11ERA
4.77FIP
7.97K/9
5.32BB/9
1.48WHIP
CHC
3.74ERA
5.03FIP
8.22K/9
4.11BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.0% EV
-154
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-31.5% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+25.5% EV
+102
F5 OVER 3.5
+14.9% EV
-135
F5_ML HOME
-11.1% EV
-167
ML HOME
-6.6% EV
-179
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.7 runs
39.9% win
CHC F5
3.1 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
50.5%
YRFI
49.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Matthews HOU18.0%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 7.2% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC17.9%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Yordan Alvarez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Joey Loperfido LF10-DAY-IL
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=284)
HOU OVER 7.5 shows +25.5% edge (model 62.1% vs market ~37%) — dominant edge driven by weak pitching on both sides and Wrigley park wind neutral. F5 TOTAL OVER 3.5 shows +14.9% edge. Market drastically underpricing run environment.
Key Factors
- Peter Lambert (HOU away SP) Bayesian ERA: 3.86 (average), 23.6% K-rate, B- grade
- Shota Imanaga (CHC home SP) Bayesian ERA: 3.65 (average), 25.6% K-rate, B- grade. Nearly identical quality.
- Both SPs are average tier (no ace mismatch) — implies bullpen heavy game, more runs likely
- Wrigley Field neutral wind (0.5 mph) — no park boost/suppress. Baseline 1.03 factor applies.
- Recent form: HOU swept CHC yesterday 8-5 (per ESPN) — HOU momentum is real; lineup click despite IL losses
Risk Factors
- OVER market is disabled (F grade), but F5 TOTAL is enabled (55% WR). Model likely overestimating full-game total by using full-slate calibration.
- HOU missing 3 key bats (Altuve, Correa, Diaz) reduces offensive potential by ~0.5 runs despite recent momentum
- 25.5% edge is extreme; likely real edge is 15-20% after adjusting for HOU lineup compromises
TOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHFAVORABLE MARKET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 59.4%
-1.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.1 pts
Total
7.5
+25.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →