HOU vs DET prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 5.0 - HOU 4.8. DET is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
DET
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETHOU
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
DET
357
Projected
DET 5.0 — HOU 4.8
Actual
DET 8 — HOU 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU33%77 mph36% whiff
FF30%92 mph19% whiff
ST15%80 mph24% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
FF33%94 mph10% whiff
SI20%95 mph8% whiff
SL18%86 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
73°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.035
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.7% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-15.1% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.3% EV
+155
F5_ML AWAY
-10.2% EV
-106
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-8.0% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-7.7% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.4 runs
39.1% win
DET F5
2.8 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x
Dillon Dingler DET24.6%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE62.6% WR (n=9)
Even SP quality (Arrighetti 8.0 K/9, Montero 8.0 K/9), model coin flip (53.4% home). Market prices DET -112 (52.8% implied) — essentially fair. No meaningful edge exists.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Arrighetti (8.0 K/9, 3.38 ERA, B- grade) = Montero (8.0 K/9, 3.97 ERA, B- grade) — matched arsenal
- Model home edge 0.5% at 53.4% prob — within margin of error, fairly priced by market
- Comerica park 1.035 factor (7mph out wind) adds ~0.3 runs to model, but negligible bet impact
- NRFI 51.1% model prob vs 0.3% edge — statistically insignificant
- All ML edges -0.0% to -7.7% (all favor market or near-even)
Risk Factors
- Montero slightly elevated ERA (3.97 vs Arrighetti 3.38) but sample likely small — regression to league mean likely
- Even games prone to public/sharp splits that don't reflect model; no clear informational advantage
NO EDGEMARKET FAIRCOIN FLIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 53.4%
-31.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.7 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →