HOU vs DET prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.8 - HOU 3.5. DET is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
DET
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
HOU
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETHOU
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (2,485 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
245
DET
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kai-Wei Teng R
HOU
ST34%84 mph29% whiff
FF27%94 mph19% whiff
SI16%93 mph18% whiff
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI45%94 mph10% whiff
CU28%78 mph30% whiff
CH21%89 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
81°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.084 Total: 1.045
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.4% EV
-169
F5_ML AWAY
-24.0% EV
-145
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-23.7% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-22.6% EV
+138
F5_ML HOME
+18.9% EV
+116
ML AWAY
-17.9% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.6 runs
34.3% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Christian Walker HOU24.3%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET19.6%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Kai-Wei Teng | Park: 0.97x
Spencer Torkelson DET15.7%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Kai-Wei Teng | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kai-Wei Teng
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 56.6%
-27.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.4 pts
Total
8.0
+15.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →