HOU vs KC prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 3.7 - HOU 3.9. HOU is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
KC
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCHOU
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
KC
246
Projected
KC 3.7 — HOU 3.9
Actual
KC 4 — HOU 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU34%77 mph38% whiff
FF30%92 mph16% whiff
ST15%79 mph22% whiff
Stephen Kolek R
KC
FF29%94 mph18% whiff
SI22%94 mph4% whiff
SL15%85 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
75°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.012
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.15ERA
4.28FIP
8.35K/9
4.77BB/9
1.32WHIP
KC
4.58ERA
5.12FIP
8.82K/9
4.74BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.9% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-27.3% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+19.4% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+13.8% EV
+104
ML HOME
-6.9% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.9% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.9 runs
40.1% win
KC F5
2.0 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.4%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
15%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.328 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x
Michael Massey KC15.1%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Stephen Kolek
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Yainer Diaz C10-DAY-IL
Peter Lambert SPDAY-TO-DAY
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B10-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Seth Lugo SP7-DAY IL
Kyle Isbel CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 50.1%
-36.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.9 pts
Total
8.5
+19.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →