FINAL: LAA 10 — HOU 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 4.2 - HOU 7.4 (HOU at 72.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.7 total runs.
LAA
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
7.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAHOU
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.7% (2,249 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
579
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 4.2 — HOU 7.4
Actual
LAA 10 — HOU 1
Pick Results
OVER 8.5totalWIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kai-Wei Teng R
HOU
ST35%85 mph32% whiff
FF25%94 mph14% whiff
SI18%94 mph18% whiff
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
CH33%91 mph35% whiff
SI31%98 mph19% whiff
FF22%98 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
75°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.995
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.31ERA
4.35FIP
8.72K/9
4.85BB/9
1.31WHIP
LAA
4.21ERA
4.65FIP
9.46K/9
5.40BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-54.7% EV
-167
F5_ML HOME
-36.0% EV
-110
ML HOME
-35.2% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-34.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+34.3% EV
+138
F5_ML AWAY
+25.0% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
4.3 runs
64.4% win
LAA F5
2.3 runs
25.2% win
F5 Total
6.6
NRFI
46.8%
YRFI
53.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.28
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.257 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.98x
Isaac Paredes HOU22.8%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kai-Wei Teng
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Yainer Diaz C10-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Vaughn Grissom 2B10-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP15-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero C10-DAY-IL
Jorge Soler DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE48.5% WR (n=216)
Model projects HOU (away) 72.3% with +24.2% ML edge and +34.3% run line edge; while Kai-Wei Teng (LAA, 3.30 ERA) is slightly weaker than Walbert Ureña (HOU, 2.89 ERA), edges >15% historically underperform (15-25% bucket = 25% WR), and 24%+34% edges are extreme and likely traps.
Key Factors
- Extreme edges (24% ML, 34% RL): Both exceed historical worst-performing thresholds (15%+ edges = 25% WR)
- Pitcher gap overstated: 3.30 vs 2.89 ERA (0.41 gap) insufficient to justify 24%+ edge; suggests model overweighting lineup quality
- Cool weather suppresses: 75F, 6 mph in wind = slightly depressed run-scoring environment
- Away favorite premium: Combo|away|favorite shows 76.9% WR (GREEN zone, but only 13 bets n=13), suggesting good edge—but high-edge problem overrides
Risk Factors
- Model confidence trap: Extreme edges (24%+) with extreme probs (72%+) have historically failed; likely overconfident on HOU lineup
HIGH EDGE WARNINGEXTREME EDGEAWAY FAVORITE PREMIUM
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 72.3%
-54.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-54.7 pts
Total
8.5
+22.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →