HOU vs MIN prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 4.0 - HOU 4.6. HOU is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
MIN
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
HOU
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINHOU
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.0 — HOU 4.6
Actual
MIN 6 — HOU 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tatsuya Imai R
HOU
SL41%87 mph40% whiff
FF34%95 mph18% whiff
SI18%95 mph17% whiff
Kendry Rojas L
MIN
FF43%96 mph19% whiff
SL31%88 mph33% whiff
CH16%88 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
58°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.016
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
5.72ERA
5.03FIP
8.25K/9
5.76BB/9
1.59WHIP
MIN
5.15ERA
4.49FIP
7.31K/9
4.44BB/9
1.54WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.4% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-21.6% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-13.3% EV
-114
ML HOME
-11.1% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+10.7% EV
-122
ML AWAY
+3.7% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.8 runs
46.8% win
MIN F5
2.4 runs
37.8% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.339 | Barrel: 18.5% | vs Kendry Rojas | Park: 0.99x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Kendry Rojas | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Kody Clemens MIN29.8%
ISO: 0.181 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Tatsuya Imai | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tatsuya Imai
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Kendry Rojas
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Altuve 2BOUT
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE38.2% WR (n=7)
Mixed signals: Tatsuya Imai (9.98 ERA, C grade) is atrocious, but Kendry Rojas (2.65 ERA, C- grade) is also concerning (very low grade despite ERA). HOU missing Jose Altuve (OUT, oblique) and other key bats. MIN bullpen is weak (5.15 ERA, quality 0.874). Model 54.4% away win prob, market 51.5% — only 3.7% edge. Cold weather (58.1F) suppresses runs slightly. UNDER 9.5 shows 10.7% edge (60.8% prob) but unders are RED. Away ML is RED ZONE. This is a low-conviction spot with no clear mechanism. Skip.
Key Factors
- Imai 9.98 ERA is alarming but sample likely tiny; Rojas 2.65 ERA with C- grade is contradictory
- HOU missing Altuve (oblique OUT) = -0.3 run swing
- Model 54.4% vs market 51.5% = only 3.7% edge (low conviction)
- UNDER 9.5 shows 10.7% edge but unders are RED ZONE (disabled)
- Cold weather (58.1F) suppresses runs slightly (~0.2 run baseline reduction)
Risk Factors
- Away ML RED ZONE (45.1% WR, n=155)
- Rojas' C- grade despite 2.65 ERA suggests data quality issue
- MIN bullpen weak (5.15 ERA), but HOU lineup also weakened without Altuve
LOW CONVICTIONAWAY ML RED ZONEINJURY IMPACTWEATHER IMPACTDATA QUALITY CONCERN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 54.4%
-40.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.4 pts
Total
9.5
+10.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →