HOU vs MIN prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 2.7 - HOU 3.4. HOU is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
MIN
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINHOU
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
135
MIN
135
Projected
MIN 2.7 — HOU 3.4
Actual
MIN 1 — HOU 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jason Alexander R
HOU
SI38%91 mph5% whiff
CH33%80 mph39% whiff
ST16%79 mph26% whiff
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF42%96 mph19% whiff
SL25%88 mph36% whiff
FC13%92 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
50°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.994
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
5.78ERA
5.03FIP
8.13K/9
5.82BB/9
1.61WHIP
MIN
5.31ERA
4.54FIP
7.16K/9
4.34BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-45.2% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+37.9% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+35.4% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-34.2% EV
+134
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.6% EV
-161
F5_ML HOME
-26.3% EV
-156
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.7 runs
45.1% win
MIN F5
1.3 runs
30.7% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
66.8%
YRFI
33.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x
Zach Cole HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jason Alexander
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Lance McCullers Jr. SPDAY-TO-DAY
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 57.2%
-34.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-34.2 pts
Total
8.5
+37.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →