HOU vs MIN prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 3.4 - HOU 3.4. MIN is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
MIN
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
HOU
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINHOU
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
135
MIN
135
Projected
MIN 3.4 — HOU 3.4
Actual
MIN 4 — HOU 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF27%95 mph8% whiff
CH26%87 mph36% whiff
SL17%90 mph27% whiff
Joe Ryan R
MIN
FF42%93 mph23% whiff
SI14%93 mph10% whiff
KC12%78 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
54°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
5.31ERA
4.82FIP
8.18K/9
5.62BB/9
1.56WHIP
MIN
5.23ERA
4.50FIP
7.09K/9
4.27BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.5% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-34.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.8% EV
+142
F5_ML HOME
-18.0% EV
-167
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+14.8% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
+14.1% EV
+134
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.8 runs
40.8% win
MIN F5
1.7 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.5%
YRFI
36.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
17%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.418 | Barrel: 18.5% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x
Christian Walker HOU26.4%
ISO: 0.246 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 50.5%
-18.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.8 pts
Total
8.0
+14.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →