HOU vs SEA prediction for April 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.7 - HOU 3.1. SEA is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
SEA
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAHOU
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOU W5SEA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
135
SEA
246
Pick Results
J.P. Crawford OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Brendan Donovan OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Cole Young OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.74u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF29%94 mph4% whiff
CH24%87 mph43% whiff
SL20%90 mph31% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
FF38%97 mph15% whiff
SL17%87 mph21% whiff
SI16%97 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
50°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.955 Total: 0.973
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
6.94ERA
6.42FIP
10.36K/9
6.86BB/9
1.76WHIP
SEA
2.11ERA
3.24FIP
9.24K/9
2.72BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.5% EV
-137
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-22.2% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+16.2% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+13.3% EV
-141
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.9% EV
+114
F5_ML HOME
-11.3% EV
-185
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.6 runs
35.7% win
SEA F5
1.9 runs
43.9% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
65.6%
YRFI
34.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
20%
Brendan Donovan SEA50.0%
ISO: 0.478 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Cam Smith HOU27.6%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x
Christian Walker HOU25.7%
ISO: 0.257 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Tatsuya Imai SP15-DAY-IL
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Cody Bolton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Hader RP15-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA6 injured
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPOUT
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE100.0% WR (n=6)
Kirby (3.89 ERA, 8.0 K) dominates Burrows (6.08 ERA, 8.0 K) in cold weather (50°F), retractable-closed park, suppressive 0.89 park factor — model 6.84 total vs 7.5 market is 16.2% edge in historically profitable GREEN zone.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Kirby 3.89 ERA, 8.0 K-rate, C+ grade vs Burrows 6.08 ERA, 6.3% BB-rate struggling badly — 2-3% win prob edge for home
- Weather/park effect: 50.3°F + retractable closed + 0.89 park factor = 0.8-1.0 run suppression off normal baseline
- Zone profile: TOTAL UNDER 7.5 in GREEN zone (100% WR, n=6) — rare and historically profitable niche
- Model-market gap: 6.84 projected vs 7.5 line = 0.66 run undervalue before weather/park adjustment
- F5 edge: UNDER 4.5 at 13.3% edge; no YRFI concern (63.5% prob)
Risk Factors
- Low-sample GREEN zone (n=6): Small sample size on 100% WR; potential variance
- Burrows regression: 6.08 ERA may represent temporary struggles; if regresses to 4.5-5.0, total increases materially
- Away ML at 3.8% edge: If betting side rather than total, weak value; stay with total
GREEN ZONEWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORPITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 58.0%
-11.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.9 pts
Total
7.5
+16.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →