HOU vs TEX prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 5.8 - HOU 4.1. TEX is favored with a 66.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
TEX
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXHOU
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.5% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
TEX
468
Projected
TEX 5.8 — HOU 4.1
Actual
TEX 1 — HOU 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU32%76 mph45% whiff
FF30%93 mph16% whiff
ST15%79 mph20% whiff
Nathan Eovaldi R
TEX
FS39%88 mph31% whiff
FC21%91 mph30% whiff
CU20%77 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
83°F2 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.92ERA
4.81FIP
7.61K/9
5.24BB/9
1.45WHIP
TEX
3.47ERA
4.14FIP
7.47K/9
3.57BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.3% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-28.0% EV
-122
ML AWAY
-21.5% EV
+120
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+20.9% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+20.0% EV
+152
F5_ML AWAY
-16.3% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.1 runs
30.3% win
TEX F5
3.3 runs
55.8% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
55.3%
YRFI
44.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Braden Shewmake HOU16.0%
ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Nimmo TEX12.9%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Nathan Eovaldi
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Joey Loperfido LF10-DAY-IL
Yainer Diaz C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP60-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=288)
TEX home favorite with 9.3% ML edge (64.3% win prob) but OVER 7.5 shows 20.9% edge (model 60.5% prob total). Totals market is disabled (F grade 45.3% WR), so full-game OVER should be SKIPPED. However, weather (83F hot, thin air at Globe Life, 1802 density altitude) + park factor 1.05 + strong pitching (Eovaldi 9.0 K/9 B grade vs Arrighetti 8.8 K/9 B- grade) creates unique conditions. F5 OVER 3.5 at 10.8% edge (61.6% prob) is cleaner. LEAN F5 OVER 3.5 instead of full-game OVER.
Key Factors
- Weather: 83F is HOT and thin air (density altitude 1802 ft)—adds 0.5-1.0 runs to typical scoring
- Park factor: Globe Life 1.05 (5% boost to scoring) vs typical stadiums
- Pitcher matchup is matched: Eovaldi 9.0 K/9 B grade vs Arrighetti 8.8 K/9 B- grade. Both quality arms, but home advantage matters
- Run model: TEX 5.78 mean vs HOU 4.11 mean = 1.67 run edge favoring home
- F5 edge 10.8% (cleaner than full-game 20.9%), and F5_total is enabled market (B grade, 54.2% WR)
Risk Factors
- Full-game OVER 7.5 edge of 20.9% is HIGH_EDGE_WARNING (model overconfidence, 38.1% WR on 15%+ edges)
- Totals market is disabled (45.3% WR, n=423)—fundamental distrust of model on full-game runs
- Thin air can backfire if both teams lean into ground balls or play-calling shifts to avoid home runs
TOTALS MARKET DISABLEDHIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER SUPPORT OVERSPARK FACTOR INFLATESF5 CLEANER ALTERNATIVETHIN AIR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 66.1%
+20.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+20.0 pts
Total
7.5
+20.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →