HOU vs TEX prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 5.8 - HOU 4.1. TEX is favored with a 66.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
TEX
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXHOU
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.0% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
TEX
468
Projected
TEX 5.8 — HOU 4.1
Actual
TEX 1 — HOU 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU32%76 mph45% whiff
FF30%93 mph16% whiff
ST15%79 mph20% whiff
Nathan Eovaldi R
TEX
FS39%88 mph31% whiff
FC21%91 mph30% whiff
CU20%77 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
83°F2 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.92ERA
4.81FIP
7.61K/9
5.24BB/9
1.45WHIP
TEX
3.47ERA
4.14FIP
7.47K/9
3.57BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.3% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-28.0% EV
-122
ML AWAY
-21.5% EV
+120
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+20.9% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+20.0% EV
+152
F5_ML AWAY
-16.3% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.1 runs
30.3% win
TEX F5
3.3 runs
55.8% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
55.3%
YRFI
44.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Braden Shewmake HOU16.0%
ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Nimmo TEX12.9%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Nathan Eovaldi
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Joey Loperfido LF10-DAY-IL
Yainer Diaz C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP60-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
TEX home favorite with 9.3% ML edge (64.3% win prob) but OVER 7.5 shows 20.9% edge (model 60.5% prob total). Totals market is disabled (F grade 45.3% WR), so full-game OVER should be SKIPPED. However, weather (83F hot, thin air at Globe Life, 1802 density altitude) + park factor 1.05 + strong pitching (Eovaldi 9.0 K/9 B grade vs Arrighetti 8.8 K/9 B- grade) creates unique conditions. F5 OVER 3.5 at 10.8% edge (61.6% prob) is cleaner. LEAN F5 OVER 3.5 instead of full-game OVER.
Key Factors
- Weather: 83F is HOT and thin air (density altitude 1802 ft)—adds 0.5-1.0 runs to typical scoring
- Park factor: Globe Life 1.05 (5% boost to scoring) vs typical stadiums
- Pitcher matchup is matched: Eovaldi 9.0 K/9 B grade vs Arrighetti 8.8 K/9 B- grade. Both quality arms, but home advantage matters
- Run model: TEX 5.78 mean vs HOU 4.11 mean = 1.67 run edge favoring home
- F5 edge 10.8% (cleaner than full-game 20.9%), and F5_total is enabled market (B grade, 54.2% WR)
Risk Factors
- Full-game OVER 7.5 edge of 20.9% is HIGH_EDGE_WARNING (model overconfidence, 38.1% WR on 15%+ edges)
- Totals market is disabled (45.3% WR, n=423)—fundamental distrust of model on full-game runs
- Thin air can backfire if both teams lean into ground balls or play-calling shifts to avoid home runs
TOTALS MARKET DISABLEDHIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER SUPPORT OVERSPARK FACTOR INFLATESF5 CLEANER ALTERNATIVETHIN AIR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 66.1%
+20.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+20.0 pts
Total
7.5
+20.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.