HOU vs TOR prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.0 - HOU 5.1. HOU is favored with a 54.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
TOR
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
HOU
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORHOU
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.0 — HOU 5.1
Actual
TOR 4 — HOU 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Brown R
HOU
FF37%96 mph23% whiff
SI25%96 mph16% whiff
KC22%83 mph36% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
FF34%98 mph25% whiff
SL30%89 mph44% whiff
CH12%84 mph62% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
60°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.027
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-28.6% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-26.5% EV
-204
F5_ML HOME
-22.9% EV
-135
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-21.8% EV
+168
ML HOME
-17.3% EV
-132
F5_ML AWAY
+15.8% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.6 runs
49.6% win
TOR F5
2.0 runs
34.3% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
22%
Yordan Alvarez HOU18.5%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU13.4%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR10.4%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Hunter Brown | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hunter Brown
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Bryan Abreu RPOUT
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE46.0% WR (n=116)
TOR away projects 54.9% win prob (53% model) vs market 47.2% (+112 implied). Model 12.4% edge driven by high-K pitcher advantage: Cease 13.6% K-rate > Brown 15% K-rate is close, but TOR gets quality off elite Cease — both high-K starters suggest under-friendly but model favors TOR ML. Market underpricing away dog in pitcher-heavy matchup.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Cease 13.6% K-rate, 0 ERA vs Brown 15% K-rate, 0 ERA — both elite high-K arms; Cease has slight command edge (B+ vs B-)
- Market 47.2% TOR prob vs model 53% — 5.8% edge on away dog with legitimately strong starter
- F5 edge 15.8% (55.7% prob TOR first 5) — early offensive advantage to away
- Rogers Centre (retractable, closed likely, neutral conditions, cool 59.9F) — no weather/park bias
- TOR bullpen 3.92 ERA vs HOU 4.13 ERA — slight late-game edge to TOR
Risk Factors
- Away ML combo zone RED (42.7% WR, 65 samples) — away dogs historically fail; Brown is strong pitcher at home
- High-K pitchers on both sides = volatile variance; edge may disappear with one hot bat
- Market heavily favoring HOU home (-131 deep) likely for good reason; may see lineup advantage not captured in model
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEYELLOW ZONEAWAY DOG CAUTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 54.9%
-21.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-21.8 pts
Total
7.0
+2.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →