HOU vs TOR prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 5.0 - HOU 4.3. TOR is favored with a 58.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
TOR
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORHOU
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
TOR
357
Projected
TOR 5.0 — HOU 4.3
Actual
TOR 1 — HOU 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF29%95 mph11% whiff
CH27%87 mph33% whiff
SL17%90 mph27% whiff
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF46%94 mph16% whiff
FS31%83 mph41% whiff
SL22%88 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
71°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.0% EV
-175
F5_ML AWAY
-7.7% EV
+122
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-6.9% EV
-108
ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
+122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+3.0% EV
+146
F5_ML HOME
-3.0% EV
-152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.2 runs
35.7% win
TOR F5
2.9 runs
50.8% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
55.1%
YRFI
44.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 1.01x
Davis Schneider TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 5.9% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 1.01x
Alejandro Kirk TOR24.2%
ISO: 0.092 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Bryan Abreu RPOUT
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Allen SS10-DAY-IL
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B10-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Ernie Clement 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE54.1% WR (n=121)
Home pitcher Yesavage (4.06 ERA, 23.7% K-rate) has modest advantage over away Burrows (6.25 ERA, weak). Model projects home at 58.1%, but market already pricing in home pitcher advantage (TOR -144, implying 59.0% home). Model-market alignment is near-perfect (-2.2% edge on home ML). No actionable edge exists; market has efficiently priced home pitcher advantage.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage home: Yesavage 4.06 ERA (B-) vs Burrows 6.25 ERA (weak). ~2.2 ERA advantage to home.
- Market pricing: TOR -144 implies 59.0% home, very close to model 57.9%. Near-perfect efficiency.
Risk Factors
- No actionable edge; market already adjusted
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 58.1%
+3.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.0 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →