FINAL: CLE 10 — KC 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 4.1 - KC 3.6 (CLE at 56.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
CLE
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
KC
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEKC
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KC L5CLE
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 4.1 — KC 3.6
Actual
CLE 10 — KC 2
Pick Results
CLE MLmlWIN+1.10u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cole Ragans L
KC
FF51%94 mph19% whiff
SL18%85 mph39% whiff
CH18%84 mph50% whiff
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF42%92 mph13% whiff
CH26%80 mph37% whiff
CU16%80 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
50°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.48ERA
5.13FIP
10.54K/9
5.91BB/9
1.46WHIP
CLE
4.08ERA
4.55FIP
11.78K/9
3.43BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.8% EV
-175
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-22.7% EV
+146
F5_ML AWAY
-19.8% EV
-143
ML AWAY
-17.5% EV
-130
F5_ML HOME
+16.1% EV
+114
ML HOME
+14.3% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.9 runs
35.7% win
CLE F5
2.3 runs
46.8% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
61.5%
YRFI
38.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Chase DeLauter CLE34.5%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Cole Ragans | Park: 0.97x
Carter Jensen KC20.8%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x
José Ramírez CLE12.9%
ISO: 0.073 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Cole Ragans | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cole Ragans
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC5 injured
James McArthur RP15-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Falter RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Alec Marsh SP60-DAY-IL
CLE5 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
George Valera RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Gaddis RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE67.7% WR (n=10)
Model correctly predicted CLE 56.7% (won 10-2), but 14.3% ML edge falls into ELEVATED threshold range (12-15%) with historically poor 46.3% ROI — the correct direction does not justify the bet due to edge-confidence mismatch.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality mismatch validated: Cantillo (B+, 0.666 overall score) vs Ragans (B, 0.577 overall score) — CLE edge justified despite Ragans' lower ERA
- Model edge at 14.3% sits in ELEVATED zone (historically 46.3% ROI loss) — edge level unreliable even though direction was correct
- Ragans' thumb injury (DAY-TO-DAY) may have contributed to poor 6.1 IP, 10 ER performance — model may have underestimated injury impact (0.5 run swing estimated)
- Cold weather (49.7F) helped CLE pitching by ~0.5 runs — model correctly accounted for run environment (total 7.65 vs market 7.0)
- Result: CLE won 10-2, total 12 — both over/under calls missed; model predicted 7.65 and got 12 (major over)
Risk Factors
- ELEVATED zone (12-15% edge) showing -9.4 ROI historically despite GREEN label on home ML — suggests GREEN label is misleading for edge ranges >12%
- Ragans injury not fully priced into market odds; model underestimated injury impact on Royals' starter
- Model's total prediction (7.65) was far too low; missed on environment (weather less suppressing than model thought) + CLE's dominant hitting
PITCHER MISMATCHMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 56.7%
-28.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.8 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →