KC vs CWS prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.0 - KC 4.3. KC is favored with a 50.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
CWS
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
KC
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSKC
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KC L5CWS W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 4.0 — KC 4.3
Actual
CWS 6 — KC 5
Pick Results
Drew Romo OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.07u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Stephen Kolek R
KC
FF25%94 mph14% whiff
SI24%94 mph10% whiff
SL16%85 mph21% whiff
Erick Fedde R
CWS
ST38%82 mph22% whiff
FC26%90 mph12% whiff
SI24%94 mph4% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
73°F19 mph wind
HR: 0.940 Total: 0.963
thin air, 18mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.68ERA
4.71FIP
8.86K/9
5.34BB/9
1.47WHIP
CWS
4.78ERA
4.75FIP
8.52K/9
5.29BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.2% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-24.1% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 5.5
+15.5% EV
-130
NRFI NRFI
+13.5% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.2% EV
+134
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+12.9% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.3 runs
43.4% win
CWS F5
2.1 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
60.0%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Vinnie Pasquantino KC30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Carter Jensen KC30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Massey KC30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Stephen Kolek
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 50.4%
-36.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.2 pts
Total
9.5
+12.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →