FINAL: CWS 6 — KC 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 4.3 - KC 4.0 (CWS at 54.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
CWS
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
KC
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSKC
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KC L5CWS W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 4.3 — KC 4.0
Actual
CWS 6 — KC 5
Pick Results
CWS MLmlWIN+0.96u
Drew Romo OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Seth Lugo R
KC
SI20%92 mph14% whiff
FF17%92 mph12% whiff
CU15%77 mph18% whiff
Noah Schultz L
CWS
FF28%96 mph26% whiff
ST24%83 mph36% whiff
SI23%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
52°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.018
5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.63ERA
4.72FIP
8.98K/9
5.29BB/9
1.46WHIP
CWS
4.86ERA
4.75FIP
8.39K/9
5.28BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.0% EV
-175
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.8% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-13.3% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-11.5% EV
-112
F5_ML AWAY
-10.3% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-6.5% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.3 runs
39.5% win
CWS F5
2.5 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.326 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Drew Romo CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Seth Lugo
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Noah Schultz
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE60.8% WR (n=5)
Noah Schultz (5.05 ERA, C+) vs Seth Lugo (3.47 ERA, B-) creates a home pitcher disadvantage; model projects 54.6% home win probability at +4.2% edge, but cold weather (51°F) and modest edge in a mid-tier matchup create a neutral spot where home field barely offsets pitcher gap.
Key Factors
- Pitcher gap: Lugo 3.47 ERA (B-, better command 0.732) vs Schultz 5.05 ERA (C+, worse command 0.355): away advantage
- Home ML edge: +4.2% (model 53.2% vs market 51%); modest home field advantage offsets pitcher gap
- Weather: 51°F, 5 mph out (slight wind advantage away), park factor 1.0 (neutral); cold favors pitching
- NRFI: +0.6% edge (56.5% prob); minimal early-inning edge
Risk Factors
- Schultz 5.05 ERA shows pitcher disadvantage; Lugo's 3.47 suggests away should have edge
- Cold weather (51°F) suppresses scoring, reduces runs overall but neither team benefits differentially
- Minimal NRFI edge (0.6%) and total edge (0.25 runs) suggest market is properly balanced
PITCHER DISADVANTAGEWEATHER IMPACTNEUTRAL SPOTSMALL EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 54.6%
-32.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.0 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →