KC vs CWS prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.8 - KC 4.8. CWS is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSKC
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
357
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 4.8 — KC 4.8
Actual
CWS 4 — KC 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luinder Avila R
KC
FF26%96 mph18% whiff
SI25%96 mph17% whiff
SL25%88 mph32% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
FF25%96 mph16% whiff
ST21%82 mph33% whiff
SI18%95 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
76°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.082 Total: 1.045
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.6% EV
-182
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-15.3% EV
-108
F5 OVER 4.5
+13.8% EV
-115
ML HOME
-10.2% EV
-135
F5_ML HOME
-9.6% EV
-132
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.1% EV
+150
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.8 runs
43.8% win
CWS F5
2.8 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
46.0%
YRFI
54.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Luinder Avila | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC24.4%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Andrew Benintendi CWS23.2%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Luinder Avila | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luinder Avila
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SPDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP15-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.2% WR (n=5)
KC away underdog at +116 projects 48.4% win prob vs market 46.3% implied, creating +4.5% edge. Both pitchers C+ quality (Anthony Kay vs Luinder Avila), but KC momentum (Carter Jensen 19-game hitting streak, yesterday's 5-4 comeback win) and slight bullpen edge (KC 4.34 ERA vs CWS 4.29 ERA) suggest positive vibes. F5 OVER 4.5 shows 13.8% edge at 60.8%.
Key Factors
- KC momentum: Carter Jensen extended 19-game hitting streak, team beat CWS yesterday 5-4 in late rally — psychological edge to away team
- Pitching: Both C+ grade (Anthony Kay vs Luinder Avila) — no SP advantage; coin flip
- F5 OVER 4.5 is the standout edge at 13.8% (60.8% model prob) — early-inning scoring likely
- Weather: 76F, 9.6 mph tail wind = run-friendly conditions, supports over lean
- Bullpens nearly identical (KC 4.34 vs CWS 4.29)
Risk Factors
- ML edge on away underdog small (4.5%) — historical RED zone for away ML. Better to take TOTAL OVER.
- Totals market DISABLED — use caution. Prefer F5 OVER 4.5 at 13.8% edge as safer bet.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 50.5%
-8.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.1 pts
Total
8.5
+6.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →