KC vs DET prediction for April 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.9 - KC 3.1. DET is favored with a 61.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
DET
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETKC
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KC L5DET
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
DET
246
Pick Results
Kevin Mcgonigle OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+2.10u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Seth Lugo R
KC
SI21%92 mph6% whiff
FF20%92 mph16% whiff
CU15%77 mph22% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF47%93 mph14% whiff
SL27%85 mph22% whiff
KC18%78 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
70°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.84ERA
4.86FIP
9.72K/9
5.58BB/9
1.44WHIP
DET
3.10ERA
4.40FIP
9.15K/9
5.67BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.6% EV
-189
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-30.4% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+24.7% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-13.7% EV
+110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+12.8% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-9.3% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.8 runs
34.2% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
63.8%
YRFI
36.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Carter Jensen KC30.0%
ISO: 0.166 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Maikel Garcia KC28.1%
ISO: 0.125 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x
Riley Greene DET25.8%
ISO: 0.132 | Barrel: 5.6% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Seth Lugo
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Isaac Collins LFDAY-TO-DAY
Bailey Falter RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
DET8 injured
Bailey Horn RP15-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
Jahmai Jones RFDAY-TO-DAY
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 61.1%
+5.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.0 pts
Total
8.5
+24.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →