KC vs OAK prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.1 - KC 3.6. OAK is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
OAK
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
KC
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKKC
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 4.1 — KC 3.6
Actual
OAK 5 — KC 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Wacha R
KC
FF29%93 mph22% whiff
CH22%80 mph28% whiff
FC17%89 mph20% whiff
Luis Severino R
OAK
FC23%94 mph15% whiff
ST23%84 mph27% whiff
SI22%96 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
65°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.988
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
5.03ERA
5.03FIP
9.49K/9
5.74BB/9
1.52WHIP
OAK
3.99ERA
4.19FIP
9.09K/9
4.63BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-36.6% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.5% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+30.3% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 5.5
+23.7% EV
-115
NRFI NRFI
+22.0% EV
+122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.9% EV
+160
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.9 runs
36.6% win
OAK F5
2.3 runs
45.8% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.2%
YRFI
40.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Carter Jensen KC27.3%
ISO: 0.328 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Luis Severino | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Nick Kurtz OAK26.9%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK25.8%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.94x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Luis Severino
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Vinnie Pasquantino 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
Bailey Falter RP15-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK4 injured
Tyler Soderstrom LFDAY-TO-DAY
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
JJ Goss SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 56.8%
-31.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.5 pts
Total
9.5
+30.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →