KC vs SEA prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.4 - KC 2.9. SEA is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
SEA
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
KC
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAKC
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.4 — KC 2.9
Actual
SEA 6 — KC 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cole Ragans L
KC
FF54%95 mph22% whiff
CH19%84 mph42% whiff
SL14%85 mph34% whiff
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF49%96 mph23% whiff
SI21%95 mph6% whiff
ST14%84 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
67°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.88ERA
5.01FIP
9.07K/9
5.67BB/9
1.49WHIP
SEA
3.08ERA
3.49FIP
9.12K/9
3.51BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.6% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-31.3% EV
-112
F5_ML AWAY
-12.5% EV
+114
F5 UNDER 3.5
+8.2% EV
-104
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+5.3% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.3% EV
+152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.4 runs
31.7% win
SEA F5
2.0 runs
47.8% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
66.3%
YRFI
33.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
50%
No HR
18%
Carter Jensen KC30.0%
ISO: 0.308 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Cole Young SEA24.7%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 6.7% | vs Cole Ragans | Park: 0.89x
Cal Raleigh SEA23.7%
ISO: 0.093 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Cole Ragans | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cole Ragans
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Bailey Falter RP15-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RPDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE50.9% WR (n=13)
Weak edges across all markets: ML SEA only -3.2% (model 57.6%, market 59.5%), under 5.3% (weak), F5 under 8.2% (modest). Sea's elite bullpen (3.08 ERA, 1.461 quality) and Woo's ERA edge (1.23 over Ragans) are likely priced in by market (-147 SEA). NRFI edge weak (3.4%). No actionable value.
Key Factors
- Bryan Woo: 4.17 ERA, B overall, A command grade (0.902) — elite control pitcher
- Cole Ragans: 5.40 ERA, B- overall, 29.5% K-rate but 14.4% BB-rate — wild
- Woo edge: 1.23 ERA + better command, likely explaining SEA -147 odds
- SEA bullpen elite (3.08 ERA, 1.461 quality) — 0.88 ERA gap to KC (4.88) is massive
- Park: T-Mobile 0.89 (slight suppression) + neutral weather = under slight edge
Risk Factors
- All edges are weak; largest is under at 5.3%
- Market SEA -147 may already price in pitcher + bullpen advantage correctly
- Home favorite in tight line suggests market has no strong conviction either way
WEAK EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 57.6%
-5.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.3 pts
Total
7.0
+5.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →