KC vs SEA prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.4 - KC 3.1. SEA is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
SEA
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
KC
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAKC
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.4 — KC 3.1
Actual
SEA 2 — KC 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Seth Lugo R
KC
SI21%92 mph15% whiff
FF18%92 mph13% whiff
CU14%77 mph21% whiff
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF34%95 mph23% whiff
SI26%95 mph10% whiff
ST24%78 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
71°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.90ERA
5.04FIP
9.24K/9
5.67BB/9
1.48WHIP
SEA
3.11ERA
3.43FIP
9.31K/9
3.59BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.2% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-37.7% EV
-108
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.2% EV
-125
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+19.0% EV
-112
NRFI NRFI
+17.6% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.9% EV
+146
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.5 runs
35.2% win
SEA F5
1.8 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
68.9%
YRFI
31.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Carter Jensen KC30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.246 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Seth Lugo
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Bailey Falter RP15-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Rob Refsnyder RFDAY-TO-DAY
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE57.7% WR (n=10)
Model projects 6.43 runs (63.0% UNDER prob) vs 8.0 market. Emerson Hancock (solid, 3.09 ERA, B grade, elite 83.5% command) vs Seth Lugo (solid, 2.84 ERA, B- grade, strong 76% command). Cold Seattle (71.2F, 10mph wind = neutral 1.017 multiplier, retractable roof neutral). 19.0% UNDER edge is strong, backed by elite pitcher command metrics. BET UNDER 8.0 with conviction.
Key Factors
- Hancock 3.09 ERA vs Lugo 2.84 ERA — marginal pitcher quality edge to KC, but both elite on command (83.5% vs 76%)
- Elite command translates to 0.5-1.0 run suppression vs average pitchers
- Model 6.43 vs market 8.0 = 1.57 run gap, 19.0% edge — strong, above optimal 8% threshold
- NRFI also +17.6% edge (64.6% model prob) — stacked signals favor early run suppression
Risk Factors
- KC weak offensively (0.923 BPR) — scoring limited both ways
- SEA has some offensive upside (Luke Raley, 30% HR prob) but Hancock control should suppress
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 54.7%
-11.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.9 pts
Total
8.0
+19.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →