KC vs SEA prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 2.8 - KC 3.8. KC is favored with a 60.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
SEA
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
KC
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAKC
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 2.8 — KC 3.8
Actual
SEA 1 — KC 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kris Bubic L
KC
FF42%92 mph25% whiff
CH22%86 mph33% whiff
ST14%82 mph22% whiff
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF41%95 mph23% whiff
SL28%85 mph35% whiff
SI20%95 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
76°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.80ERA
4.96FIP
9.23K/9
5.56BB/9
1.45WHIP
SEA
3.01ERA
3.36FIP
9.30K/9
3.48BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-50.4% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-36.2% EV
-110
ML HOME
-21.9% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-21.2% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+16.6% EV
-110
ML AWAY
+16.5% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.1 runs
48.9% win
SEA F5
1.4 runs
30.6% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
67.8%
YRFI
32.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
16%
Carter Jensen KC30.0%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Vinnie Pasquantino KC30.0%
ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Salvador Perez KC30.0%
ISO: 0.128 | Barrel: 7.8% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.89x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kris Bubic
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Bailey Falter RP15-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Cal Raleigh CDAY-TO-DAY
Will Wilson 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Rob Refsnyder RFDAY-TO-DAY
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1RED ZONE44.3% WR (n=134)
SEA away ML at +104 has 16.5% edge (57.1% model prob vs 49% market). Away ML is RED ZONE (44.3% WR), BUT model also projects SEA winning F5 ML (58.7% prob, 10.4% edge)—first-5-inning play is GREEN historically (56.9% WR on F5_total). Focus on SEA moneyline because Kris Bubic (4.04 ERA) beats Luis Castillo (6.86 ERA, terrible).
Key Factors
- Kris Bubic (SEA away) 4.04 ERA, 25.5% K, decent stuff (B-)—solid mid-rotation arm
- Luis Castillo (KC) 6.86 ERA, 19.2% K, poor command (0.630)—KC's pitcher is BAD
- Model F5 ML (58.7% prob, 10.4% edge) confirms early-game SEA advantage. First-5-innings are 56.9% WR historically.
- Warm (75.8°F), neutral wind—overs lean, but model projects 6.62 total (below market 8.0), suggesting pitcher control dominates.
Risk Factors
- Away ML is RED ZONE (44.3% WR)—historical weakness despite this game's pitcher mismatch
- 16.5% edge is elevated—risks model overconfidence. But F5 edge (10.4%) is in sweet spot historically.
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUERED ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 60.4%
-50.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-50.4 pts
Total
8.0
+16.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →