KC vs STL prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.0 - KC 4.2. KC is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
STL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLKC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,085 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.0 — KC 4.2
Actual
STL 5 — KC 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Wacha R
KC
FF30%93 mph16% whiff
CH24%80 mph27% whiff
FC18%89 mph16% whiff
Dustin May R
STL
FF27%97 mph12% whiff
FC20%93 mph18% whiff
ST19%86 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
83°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.53ERA
4.74FIP
8.98K/9
5.28BB/9
1.45WHIP
STL
4.68ERA
4.48FIP
8.12K/9
4.61BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.2% EV
-189
NRFI NRFI
+15.5% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-13.0% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 4.5
+9.6% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.6% EV
+155
F5_ML HOME
-8.5% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.3 runs
43.3% win
STL F5
2.1 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
60.7%
YRFI
39.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Carter Jensen KC30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.252 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE55.5% WR (n=1951)
Statistically coin flip with only notable edge being NRFI (15.5% edge, 57.2% model). Both ML and total edges are trivial or negative. Dustin May (5.24 ERA, C+ at home) vs Michael Wacha (2.84 ERA, B- away) is pitcher mismatch favoring STL but market is fairly tight (-109/-106 near pick'em). No injuries material. NRFI has value but is specialized market with different payout structure. Overall game is SKIP unless specifically targeting NRFI.
Key Factors
- Pick'em pricing: -109/-106 shows near parity. Market sees balanced game.
- Model less bullish on STL than market: Market at 52.4% (STL) vs model 50.0% suggests sharp money favors Wacha and KC value.
- NRFI is sole edge (15.5%, 57.2% model): First inning no runs has clear value but it's a specialized play, not core game action.
- Total edge negligible (4.1% under) in coin-flip zone. Even under thesis (two mediocre starters) is undermined by warm weather + thin air that inflates runs.
- Weather creates conflicting signals: 82.8°F warm + thin air 1.11x park factor should inflate (supporting overs), but two middle-of-road SPs suggest low-scoring. Model 8.29 vs market 8.5 (only 4.1% apart) reflects this uncertainty.
Risk Factors
- Model suspect here: Market sees STL -109 (better than 50%) while model sees pick'em. Market might be right on this one.
- No clear edge: ML negative, total negligible. Not enough to warrant action.
- NRFI is viable only if specifically targeting that market. Core game offers nothing.
COIN FLIPMODEL VS MARKET CONFLICTNRFI ONLYSKIP RECOMMENDED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 50.1%
-38.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.2 pts
Total
8.5
+4.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →