KC vs STL prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.2 - KC 4.5. KC is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
STL
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
KC
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLKC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,114 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
346
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.2 — KC 4.5
Actual
STL 4 — KC 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Noah Cameron L
KC
FF31%92 mph11% whiff
FC21%89 mph28% whiff
CH20%82 mph30% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
SL16%89 mph20% whiff
CU15%82 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
83°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.000 Total: 0.997
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.38ERA
4.69FIP
9.09K/9
5.37BB/9
1.48WHIP
STL
4.54ERA
4.44FIP
8.13K/9
4.66BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-48.9% EV
-189
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-34.7% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-22.3% EV
-120
NRFI NRFI
+20.6% EV
+104
ML HOME
-20.1% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 5.5
+13.9% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.4 runs
50.0% win
STL F5
1.7 runs
32.4% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
63.5%
YRFI
36.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.379 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jac Caglianone KC27.0%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC23.6%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Noah Cameron
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1RED ZONE0.5% WR (n=153)
KC road underdog shows elite 13.1% ML edge (market -104, model 57.7%) despite facing STL at home; edge driven by KCs superior pitching profile (Noah Cameron 5.99 ERA but 19.5% K-rate vs Kyle Leahy 4.65 ERA, only 17.8% K-rate). Home ML zone RED-flagged at 45.7% WR on away bets, but this is away favorited scenario — KC is away dog and should win per model. F5 UNDER edge (13.9%) also strong in B+ market.
Key Factors
- Away ML edge 13.1% with model 57.7% win prob (market 51%) — AWAY UNDERDOG profile, not away favorite
- KC pitching: Noah Cameron 5.99 ERA (poor) BUT 19.5% K-rate vs Leahy 17.8% K-rate — strikeout edge to KC
- Home run risk: STL +1.0 HR mult (neutral), KC at 83F (warm, favorable for hits) — slight offensive advantage neither team
- NRFI elite edge at 20.6% (59.1% prob) — both SPs generate weak early contact, lean KC early
- F5_ML edge 12.8% confirms model conviction early; F5_UNDER also strong at 13.9%
Risk Factors
- Away ML zone RED (45.7% WR n=153) — but this is AWAY DOG, not away favorite; historical data less applicable
- High edges (13%+) can be model overconfidence per recent calibration failures
- STL home team has 54.3% GREEN zone WR — slight bias toward home teams in general
PITCHER ADVANTAGE KCAWAY UNDERDOG PROFILERED ZONE AWAY ML CAUTIONF5 EDGE CONFIRMATIONNRFI ELITE EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 60.6%
-48.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-48.9 pts
Total
9.0
+11.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →