KC vs STL prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.2 - KC 3.9. KC is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
STL
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
KC
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLKC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.2 — KC 3.9
Actual
STL 0 — KC 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Stephen Kolek R
KC
FF25%94 mph15% whiff
SI24%94 mph10% whiff
SL16%85 mph22% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF31%95 mph14% whiff
SL27%87 mph35% whiff
SI20%95 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
86°F18 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.002
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.39ERA
4.69FIP
8.97K/9
5.36BB/9
1.49WHIP
STL
4.51ERA
4.50FIP
7.98K/9
4.57BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.4% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-44.2% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+24.1% EV
-102
NRFI NRFI
+23.8% EV
+104
F5 UNDER 5.5
+23.0% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
-15.4% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.9 runs
44.2% win
STL F5
1.6 runs
34.5% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
65.5%
YRFI
34.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
15%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.274 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.98x
Alec Burleson STL30.0%
ISO: 0.210 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Wetherholt STL26.8%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Stephen Kolek
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tyson Guerrero RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan India 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 55.6%
-45.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.4 pts
Total
9.0
+24.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →