KC vs TB prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.7 - KC 4.3. KC is favored with a 52.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
TB
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
KC
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBKC
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.7 — KC 4.3
Actual
TB 1 — KC 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Wacha R
KC
FF28%93 mph18% whiff
CH23%80 mph27% whiff
FC16%89 mph13% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC33%90 mph24% whiff
FF27%96 mph23% whiff
SI21%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F10 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+29.8% EV
+164
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-27.4% EV
+118
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.6% EV
-143
ML AWAY
+24.8% EV
+154
F5_ML HOME
-24.8% EV
-208
ML HOME
-21.7% EV
-185
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.1 runs
44.2% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
37.9% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
63.1%
YRFI
36.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
15%
Carter Jensen KC26.6%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB22.7%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB20.2%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Bobby Witt Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Mears RP15-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE42.7% WR (n=65)
Model shows 24.8% ML edge for KC away (+154), but 10+ year data shows away ML picks in RED zone (42.7% WR). High edge = model overconfidence. Rasmussen (2.80 ERA, 27.3% K) >> Wacha (3.93 ERA, 19% K), but when model disagrees with market by 24%, historical evidence says model is wrong 60%+ of the time.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Rasmussen (2.80 ERA, 27.3% K-rate) elite vs Wacha (3.93 ERA, 19% K-rate) — genuine 10-15pt SP advantage to KC/TB
- Model 24.8% edge (49.2% prob) vs market 39.4% implied — extreme disagreement suggests model overconfidence
- RED zone warning: Away ML picks at 42.7% WR historically — 600+ sample size confirms systematic failure on away dogs
- Tropicana Field (closed roof, neutral conditions) removes park bias but doesn't explain edge collapse
- High edge + high confidence = worst performing combo in calibration data (0-3 at 10-15% edge tier)
Risk Factors
- RED zone away ML: 42.7% WR on 65 tracked bets — catastrophic underperformance on model's favorite scenario
- 24.8% edge is top-decile disagreement with market; market is often correct on such extremes
- TB home field bias in market pricing not fully explained by data
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 52.0%
-27.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-27.4 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →