Who is predicted to win KC vs TEX on May 29, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, KC is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is TEX 4.7 - KC 5.3.

How did KC vs TEX on May 29, 2026 end?

Final score: TEX 9 - KC 1. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

KC vs TEX Prediction & Picks — May 29, 2026

KC vs TEX prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.7 - KC 5.3. KC is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.

TEX

4.7

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

5.3

Projected Score

Win Probability

46.3%

53.7%

TEXKC

-1.5

Run Line (TEX)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

357

TEX

357

Projected

TEX 4.7 — KC 5.3

Actual

TEX 9 — KC 1

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Stephen Kolek R

FF29%94 mph14% whiff

SI22%94 mph3% whiff

CH16%87 mph22% whiff

MacKenzie Gore L

TEX

FF43%95 mph20% whiff

CU22%82 mph31% whiff

CH11%87 mph32% whiff

Weather Impact

Globe Life Field

90°F9 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.043 Total: 1.021

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

4.58ERA

4.67FIP

8.59K/9

4.93BB/9

1.51WHIP

TEX

3.47ERA

4.14FIP

7.47K/9

3.57BB/9

1.23WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-30.4% EV

-204

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

-29.7% EV

-112

F5_ML HOME

-25.3% EV

-132

TOTAL OVER 7.5

+21.2% EV

-108

F5_ML AWAY

+18.6% EV

+106

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-15.6% EV

+168

First 5 Innings & NRFI

KC F5

3.2 runs

53.2% win

TEX F5

2.4 runs

33.3% win

F5 Total

5.6

NRFI

47.7%

YRFI

52.3%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.17

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.5

Over 0.5 HR

91%

Over 1.5 HR

71%

No HR

Jake Burger TEX30.0%

ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 1.02x

Salvador Perez KC29.7%

ISO: 0.234 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x

Joc Pederson TEX24.4%

ISO: 0.141 | Barrel: 6.9% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Stephen Kolek

0.0 K projected

KC | K/9: 0.0

MacKenzie Gore

0.0 K projected

TEX | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

KC8 injured

Nick Mears RP15-DAY-IL

Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL

Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL

Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL

Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL

James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

TEX8 injured

Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL

Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL

Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL

Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL

Carter Baumler RP60-DAY-IL

Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

KC 53.7%

-15.6 pts

Run Line