KC vs TEX prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 5.4 - KC 5.2. TEX is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
TEX
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
KC
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXKC
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,440 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
357
TEX
357
Projected
TEX 5.4 — KC 5.2
Actual
TEX 6 — KC 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Wacha R
KC
FF30%93 mph18% whiff
CH22%80 mph31% whiff
FC16%89 mph15% whiff
Jack Leiter R
TEX
FF37%97 mph23% whiff
CH19%90 mph32% whiff
SL18%87 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
92°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.030 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.58ERA
4.67FIP
8.59K/9
4.93BB/9
1.51WHIP
TEX
3.47ERA
4.14FIP
7.47K/9
3.57BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-34.9% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.5% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+25.2% EV
-112
F5 OVER 4.5
+24.9% EV
+118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.0% EV
+164
ML AWAY
-8.0% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
3.0 runs
43.9% win
TEX F5
3.0 runs
42.7% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
46.6%
YRFI
53.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Carter Jensen KC30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Burger TEX27.8%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 1.02x
Salvador Perez KC26.0%
ISO: 0.134 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Jack Leiter
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Maikel Garcia 3BOUT
Nick Mears RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Evan Carter CFDAY-TO-DAY
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
OVER 7.5 with 25.2% edge (model 66.2%) but system totals disabled. Both lineups compromised (KC/TEX injuries). 25.2% edge worst historical bucket. Skip per protocol.
Key Factors
- Leiter > Wacha pitcher
- 25.2% edge
- Thin air
Risk Factors
- Totals disabled
- Injuries reduce scoring
- High edge
TOTALS DISABLEDHIGH EDGE WARNINGINJURIES BOTH SIDES
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 53.6%
-32.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.5 pts
Total
7.5
+25.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →